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Key Data To Watch Out For – 06 June 2015
THE WEEK AHEAD FUNDAMENTALLY – KEY DATA TO WATCH OUT FOR
Last week was all about waiting for Friday’s NonFarm Payroll data. the figure of 280,000 was far higher than the expected 222,000 and not surprisingly the $ rallied, commodities fell, risk and bonds fell as market participants now believe a FED tightening is closer than previously anticipated.It is nearly two and a half years since the old FED Chairman Bernanke began tapering QE. Two and a half years since we have been anticipating a miniscule 0.25% rate increase.
Surely therefore this has been priced into the $ already? Surely any further $ upside has to be driven by fresh news?Will rates globally rise? Yes they will. When will they rise? No one knows. Is the hike already priced in? Yes it is and therefore we continue to anticipate a series of lower highs for the $ Index.A thinnish week for data with most activity in the $ and a two day G7 Meeting starting on Sunday which will having bearing on all the majors if anything of note is discussed.
► USD: Activity for the $ starts on Thursday when we have Core Retail Sales which excludes automobiles expected at 0.7%. This is followed by Retail sales at 1.1% and the customary Unemployment Claims at 277,000.
On Friday we have PPI at 0.4% and Consumer Sentiment at 91.3.
COT shows that the large commercials increased their net short position from -65,900 contracts to -73,188. Slightly bearish.
► EURO: Absolutely nothing for the Euro this week.
COT data for the Euro was by and large unchanged from last week showing large commercials net long by just under 210,000 contracts. Neutral.
► GBP: Two items both on Wednesday when we have Manufacturing Production expected at 0.1% and the more important BOE Governor speech to the City.
COT data sees large commercials increasing their net long position by just under 2,000 contracts. Neutral.
► YEN: On Sunday we have the Current Account figure guesstimated at 1.45T and GDP thought to be 0.7%.
On Tuesday we have Core Machinery Orders anticipated to have declined by 1.7% and finally on Wednesday we have the Manufacturing Index at 3.2.
Good movement in large commercials COT report which shows them increasing their net long position by a sizeable 23,000 contracts. Bullish
► AUD: On Monday we have Business Confidence.
On Tuesday RBA Governor speaks.
On Wednesday we the Employment Change figure thought to be 15,200 and the Unemployment Rate expected to be unchanged at 6.2%.
A huge move in large commercials long position which grew by a large 27,000 contracts. Strongly bullish.
►CNY: On Monday we have the Trade balance number expected at 44.9B and CPI thought to be 1.3%.
Thursday sees Industrial Production estimated at 6.0%.
There is no COT data for the CNY.
OUR VIEW: With the excitement of NonFarm Payrolls behind us for another month we can go back to speculating on the Greek saga, Ukraine, ISIS, G7 meetings etc etc.
More importantly from a fundamental point of view is the large commercial positioning as measured by the COT data. This shows an ever decreasing appetite for the $ with both the Yen and the AUD showing the most positive moves this week.
If strength in both prevails then this should manifest itself in commodity strength due to the AUD and risk weakness due to the Yen.
Stay nimble. Good luck trading.
CHECK OUR INTERACTIVE ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR FULL LIST OF UPCOMING DATA RELEASES
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