Loonie Edges Lower as Crude Oil Slides and U.S. Yields Rise


The USD/CAD edged higher on Thursday recapturing the 10-day moving average as crude oil prices headed south eroding the value of the Loonie. Yields differentials are favoring the greenback as the 2-year yield in the U.S. soared following Yellen’s comments on Wednesday where she reiterated that an interest rate move in December was live, and data dependent. It appears that the market is now pricing in an interest rate hike, which is driving the greenback higher and could continue to undermine the Canadian currency.

Canada’s economy is expected to create 10.0k jobs in October, extending the run of modest gains seen since July as growth recovers following the net contraction in employment seen during the first half of this year. But the outlook for this often volatile report is less certain than usual following a huge drop in September education payrolls. Hence, the total jobs figure may be of less interest this time around given the potential distortion from education, putting the focus on individual sectors, the unemployment rate and hours worked.

Momentum on the USD/CAD is positive, but the trajectory of the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index has flattened, which reflects consolidation. The RSI (relative strength index) is printing a reading of 53, which is in the middle of the neutral range and also reflects consolidation.

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