This is the week many analysts have been waiting for, as we get a series of pivotal data that will give us some insight into how the pound, euro and Aussie dollar might behave in the medium term.
We also might have some surprises in just who is facing the COVID challenge the best.
Finally a recovery for UK jobs?
The UK leads with the major data releases, starting with employment figures on Tuesday.
The star of the event is the ILO unemployment rate, which is an average for April-May-June months. It’s projected to come in at 4.2% compared to 3.9% prior, which included a month of pre-shutdown.
The fresher data to look out for is the claimant count change, for which there isn’t any consensus among analysts.
So, we could see some volatility in the aftermath. Remember the higher this figure, the worse it is for the pound.
UK Economy Doing Worse than the Continent?
On Wednesday, the UK reports its Q2 GDP numbers, which are projected to show a quarterly drop of -22.5% in the economy, compared to -1.7% in the first quarter.
Naturally, the period covering the worst of the COVID situation would have a significantly negative result. Everyone already knew the UK was in recession, but this would make it official.
Annual GDP is projected to come in at -15.0%, actually an improvement over the prior measure of -22.8% in May.
What traders are likely to focus on is the June monthly change in GDP, since that’s the freshest information. The consensus is for a substantial rebound, growing at 8.0% compared to 1.8% in May.
Will the Australian Labor Market Improve Despite the Outbreak in Victoria?
On Thursday, we expect Australia to announce 40K new jobs created in July, compared to 210.8K in June. The slowing pace is being attributed to the reimposition of lockdowns in the state of Victoria.
The unemployment rate is expected to move higher to 7.8% compared to 7.4% prior.
However, the participation rate is expected to increase by a full percentage point, suggesting that the comparative unemployment rate has decreased. There are just more people looking for work.
How Many More Jobs is the EU expected to Lose?
The EU rounds out the week reporting both employment and GDP figures at the same time.
The common economic area is expected to report a Q2 employment change of -0.1%, a slight improvement from -0.2% in the first quarter.
But, taken on an annualized basis, employment is expected to still be better than the prior year.
Confirming the Hit to the EU Economy
Finally, we have the preliminary Q2 GDP figures for the eurozone, which are expected to affirm the advance figures we’ve already seen.
Unless there is a significant revision to the prior figures, we wouldn’t expect much of a market reaction. Quarterly GDP is expected to be confirmed at -12.1% for Q2, and on an annualized basis, that would be -15.0%.