Mixed BOJ Minutes Consolidates USD/JPY; RSI Overbought


The Bank of Japan meeting minutes for the November 19 monetary policy decision were released overnight. The decision to increase its QQE program was not without divergent views. Some members thought the size of the additional should be as big as possible, with a need to avoid having the easing seen as incremental. A few argued that the asset purchase program should be explained as open-ended.

One member thought that not acting to increase stimulus would be seen as breaking the Bank’s commitment and hence impair the policy makers’ credibility. One member also believed that the 2% inflation target would be in sight in the second half of 2015 with additional stimulus. Other Bank of Japan governors thought maintaining the prior policy stance was appropriate, and worried that the effects of the additional stimulus were not worth the costs. A few members worried that market functioning might be impaired by further easing. Some also remarked that households were seeing prices rising at a considerable pace.

On the economic front, Japan services producer price index rose 0.1% in October to 102.5, after a 0.1% September gain, rebounding from a 0.2% decline in August. However, compared to last year, prices accelerated slightly to 3.6% year over year versus 3.5% year over year previously. Helping boost year over year prices were increasing in a couple of major sectors, including information and communication, leasing and rental prices, and advertising. Though welcome, the modest pick-up in prices probably won’t be a major market mover.

The technicals are somewhat mixed on the daily USD/JPY chart. The uptrend is in place and support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 117.17. Short term resistance is seen near last week’s highs at 119.00. Short term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index has generated a sell signal. This occurs as the spread (the 5-day moving average minus the 13-day moving average) crosses below the 6-day moving average of the spread. Additionally, the RSI is printing a reading of 76, which is above the overbought trigger level of 70 and could foreshadow a correction.

The post Mixed BOJ Minutes Consolidates USD/JPY; RSI Overbought appeared first on Forex Circles.

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