Monday Outlook – 28-11-2016

Welcome to the easyMarkets weekly outlook starting this Monday 28 November. We’ll be looking at the week’s key economic events on the financial calendar covering Monday to Thursday. Be sure to catch up with our Friday morning report that looks back at how the events played out and with a look at Friday’s events. This is a busy week for the US with a lot of key announcements due – from GDP, to consumer confidence, to manufacturing, to jobs data.

Event: ECB President Mario Draghi’s speech

Date: Monday 28 November 2016 at 14:00 GMT

Markets affected: EUR/USD

Trending hashtags: #ecb, #usd, #eur

President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi will be speaking before the EU Parliament’s Economic Committee in Brussels regarding economic progress since the UK’s Brexit vote back in June. Draghi has commented on extending the euro bond purchasing for next month due to a weak Eurozone. ECB provided no clarifications yet as to the future of its asset-purchasing programme.

Event: US GDP announcement

Date: Tuesday 29 November at 13:30 GMT

Markets affected: EUR/USD

Trending hashtags: #gdp, #usd, #usgdp

A slow year for the US economy seems to be turning around with third quarter GDP being revised upwards to 2.9% growth. This next release might show another slight upwards revision to 3%. All this is laying positive ground-work for the Fed to keep true to expectations and increase interest rates next month.

Event: US CB Consumer Confidence

Date: Tuesday 29 November 2016 at 15:00 GMT

Markets affected: EUR/USD

Trending hashtags: #usd, #spi

Pre-election cautiousness saw consumer’s confidence slip last month to 98.6. Analysts expect with the uncertainty of the election out of the way, that confidence may rise to 101.3. The gift buying season is around the corner, so some are hoping to see a boost in the figure which will be good news for business.

Event: Canada GDP

Date: Wednesday 30 November 2016 at 13:30 GMT

Markets affected: CAD/USD

Trending hashtags: #cad, #gdp

2015-2016 has seen slow GDP growth for Canada increasing just 1.3%. The last three months were slowing even further – June’s was a low 0.6%, July slipped to 0.4% and August’s came in at a dismal 0.2%. The October figure due out is expected to follow suit and only increase 0.1%.

Event: US ISM Manufacturing PMI

Date: Thursday 1 December 2016 at 15:00 GMT

Markets affected: EUR/USD

Trending hashtags: #spi, #dow, #usd

The US ISM Manufacturing index has been showing steady growth month-on-month with October lifting to 51.9. Production came in strong at 54.6 but orders dropped to 52.1. Employment saw growth to 52.9 while exports continued their eight-month of affirmative data. For November, the ISM Manufacturing index is forecasted to increase again to 52.1.

Event: US Non-Farm Payroll and Unemployment Rate

Date: Friday 2 December 2016 at 13:30 GMT

Markets affected: EUR/USD

Trending hashtags: #usd, #eur, #nfp

Last month’s jobs data were a little disappointing with the Non-Farm employment change coming in under expectations at 161,000, and the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.9%. Regardless of last month’s minor slips, analysts are still positive on a Fed interest rate hike in December. Expectations for November’s NFP are 165,000 with unemployment to also remain at 4.9%

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