Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes – Tuesday the 21st of April 2:30am
Very often I would trade in to a risk event and position myself before the news is released. However, at the moment there is so much volatility in the market particularly with the pound and with the dollar that it is not really possible to do so. In general, we have got lots of data out this week. Moreover, the overall theme in the market at the moment is looking for deviations in the data. Thus, as I said, we are not trading into any risk events at the moment. Simply, because there is nothing really in terms of a solid trade opportunity.
One of the highlights of Forex Trading News events this week is Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes from Australia. It is an important event because it could give us an idea of what the RBA are talking about in their meetings, how they are making a decision and ultimately whether or not they thinking that they need to cut their rates again. So at the moment the call is sitting on their hands.
Market has a sneaky feeling that the RBA could cut again at some point. The IRS market is last week was pricing in a 56% chance that the RBA will cut in May. Basically, there is a very very slight edge that they will cut in May but that’s what the market are thinking. Anyhow, the debate is not whether they will cut or not because the cut will definitely happen. The question is if it will happen within next few months or the RBA will be holding back longer. Glenn Stevens is speaking just before Monetary Policy Meeting. We want to listen to what he says as it could help us in answering our questions.
So to sum up, Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes is the most important Forex Trading News event this week. It could set the tone for Australian dollar over the coming week. AUD could get rallying or falling depending on what happens during the meeting.
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