NZD/YSD hit by lower Fonterra forecasts

Posted On 15 May 2015

Tag: EURGBP, EURUSD, GBPJPY, NZDJPY, NZDUSD, NZDYSD, USDCHF

NZD/USD opens Asia at 0.7493, trades down from 0.7502 to 0.7454.
• Steady early but Fonterra announcement sees bid hit aggressively.
• 0.7450-area bids help limit move down, small bounce later.
• June OCR cut still on table despite strong retail sales data yesterday.

USD/JPY, JPY crosses up on pre-weekend and Gotobi Tokyo fix demand.
• USD/JPY up from 119.16 to 11.50, back into 119.34-95 Ichimoku cloud.
• 119.35-50 offers absorbed, more above, some stops mixed in 119.50+.
• Headwind topside at 119.67/69 Ichimoku kijun/tenkan lines, US yields soggy.
• EUR/JPY up from 135.91 to 136.33 in sympathy, GBP/JPY 187.83 to 188.38.
• NZD/JPY off, 89.41 to 88.88 on Fonterra, AUD/JPY soggy, 95.89-96.43.

EUR/USD, EUR complex mostly steady in quiet, pre-weekend Asia trading.
• EUR/USD range 1.1393-1.1418, on hold below yesterday’s 1.1445 high.
• Offers ahead of 1.1450, stops eyed above here and 1.1500.
• Questions as to EUR-DAX-Bund correlation relenting
• EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF sideways too between 0.7227-36, 1.0406-15.
• EUR/JPY up modestly alongside USD/JPY, fix demand, market still short.

GBP/USD was steady between 1.5758-80, pre-weekend pause in uptrend?
• Question as to whether EUR/GBP short-covering over.
• Also EUR-DAX-Bund correlation – relenting or merely pausing?

USD/CHF steady between 0.9125-39, few flows noted.
• EUR/CHF stuck in 1.0385-1.0440 range this week, more of same?

AUD/USD opens Asia at 0.8078, trades down a leg from 0.8089 to 0.8043.
• Weakness on back of NZD/USD sales post-Fonterra news.
• Support pre-0.8040 but bounces since anemic.
• Quite a few stale shorts out there including London macro accounts.
• Stops sub-0.8040 may revive interest.

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