4 hour timeframe
The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.
The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.
The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.
On Wednesday, June 19, the GBP / USD currency pair began to correct completely against the downward trend, as indicated by the purple bars of the Heiken Ashi indicator. Meanwhile, the whole world is watching the election of the leader of the Conservative Party, as well as the Prime Minister of Great Britain. Yesterday, the second round of voting took place, in which 7 candidates took part, and only conservative deputies from the House of Commons voted. Out of the 313 votes, 126 went to the main candidate for the post of prime minister – Boris Johnson. Dominic Raab, on the other hand, dropped out of the race for the prime minister’s position. Thus far, everything is absolutely expected and predictable. Today, the third round of elections will take place already, and the whole process will continue until there are only two candidates left. Then, there will be the last round of elections in which all members of the Conservative Party will vote, which has about 160,000. The British pound sterling has so far refused to respond to the election of the prime minister. And this, from our point of view, is also logical. Let’s say the prime minister will be Boris Johnson, what will this change in the Brexit procedure? Nothing. That’s when the new prime minister begins to perform any actions, traders will be able to evaluate these actions, as well as new prospects for Brexit and adjust their trading plans to them. In the meantime, all candidates for the post of leader of the country only make loud statements that are unlikely to be fulfilled. Thus, the trend for the pound remains downward, which is also indicated by both linear regression channels.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1,2512
S2 – 1.2451
S3 – 1.2390
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.2573
R2 – 1.2634
R3 – 1.2695
The GBP / USD pair has begun a correction. So today, June 19, it is still recommended to consider selling the pair with targets 1.2512 and 1.2451, but after the end of the current round of correction.
It will be possible to buy a pair of pound / dollar not earlier than reversing over the moving. But even in this case, the purchases will be associated with increased risks, as the bulls remain very weak due to the difficult situation in the UK.
In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanations for illustrations:
The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of unidirectional movement.
The lower linear channel is the purple lines of unidirectional movement.
CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.
The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.
Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.
Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com