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Risk Recovery Rally Continues
Posted On 07 Aug 2019
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Dollar Drift Continues
USD is seeing some mild upside over the European morning on Wednesday, though moves remain subdued. The USD index is still languishing near the bottom of last week’s decline which pierced below the 97.11 level briefly. Price trades 97.44 last, sitting just up off support for now. Absence of key data today is likely to keep flows fairly contained amidst otherwise quiet summer trading.
Euro Heads Lower
EURUSD remains hemmed in against the 1.1217 level resistance today. In line with continued data weakness in the eurozone, the market is widely expecting the ECB to ease at its next opportunity. This week, German industrial production was shown to have fallen a further 1.5% over June, now down over 5% on the year so far.
Brexit Woes Weigh On Pound
GBPUSD remains under pressure today. Rhetoric from both the EU and the UK suggests that a no-deal Brexit is now the most likely outcome and UK PM Johnson has vowed to take the UK out of the EU by the current October 31st deadline “do or die”. GBPUSD trades 1.2143 last, sitting just up off the recent 1.2073 lows.
Equities Extend Their Recovery
Risk assets have continued their recovery rally over the European morning on Wednesday. SPX500 has rallied hard off the sub 2816.41 lows posted yesterday, to trade 2885.03 last, fast approaching resistance at the 2890.56 level. The outlook for equities remains precarious however, given the ongoing tensions between the US and China. Yesterday, the US labeled China a “currency manipulator” for the first time since 1994, provoking an immediate rebuttal from the Chinese who denied the accusations.
Gold Still Bid
Safe havens have been mixed today with gold slightly higher against USD while JPY trades slightly lower. XAUUSD trades 1486.48 last with price firmly on its way to test the next resistance at 522.79 which was the 2012 and mid-2011 lows. USDJPY trades 106.27 last with price remaining hemmed in between support at the 105.55 level and resistance at 106.77.
Crude Down Despite Further Inventories Draw
Oil prices have been under pressure again today following a large slide yesterday which came despite the API reporting an 8th consecutive weekly drawdown in US crude stores, It seems that with the uptick in tensions between the US and China, concerns over the demand outlook are once again trumping shifts in inventory levels. The headline EIA report later today could fuel some movement if it confirms the drawdown. However, for now, crude trades 53.37, sitting well below the broken 54.90 support and on its way down to test next support at the 50.80 level.
High Betas Head Lower
USDCAD has continued its break higher today with price trading up to test the 1.3300 level which is holding as resistance for now. The break lower in crude prices is weighing on CAD, allowing for USD to rise against its counterpart in the near term as trade war concerns also knock CAD lower.
AUDUSD has been higher today, fuelled by cross flows from AUDNZD in the wake of an unexpected .50% rare cut from the RBNZ. AUDUSD trades .6732 last, though is still sitting well below the recent .6761 level which was broke yesterday to print fresh 2019 lows.
