Safe Havens Down Over European Morning

Dollar Down on Weak Trade Data

The US dollar was weaker over the European morning on Thursday. Data yesterday showed that the US trade deficit widened over May. The data will not be welcomed by President Trump and is unlikely to moderate his aggressive trade policies. USD index trades 95.75 last, still sitting atop the 95.72 level for now. Looking ahead today, USD could get a boost from Q1 GDP which is expected to tick up to 3.2% from 3.1% prior.

EUR Lower on Weak Data

EURUSD has been a little lower so far today, following yesterday’s rally, despite USD weakness. A raft of eurozone data came in weaker than expected earlier, bringing ECB easing expectations back into focus. EURUSD trades 1.1368 last, still sitting above the 1.1343 level for now.

GBP Remains Subdued

GBPUSD has conceded earlier gains made over the European session as price action remains very subdued and stagnant. The pair is still sitting above the 1.2658 level for now, though earlier momentum has dried up. Political uncertainty, both domestically and with regard to Brexit, is keeping the BOE’s hands tied for now and the market is lacking a clear directional view.

Risk Appetite Increases

Risk assets have posted a solid recovery over the session so far today. SPX500 is trading back up to 2924.85 following the break below the 2940.37 level earlier in the week. The market appears to be caught between the opposing forces of the threat of war between the US and Iran and the prospect of fresh Fed easing.

Safe Havens Lower On Risk Recovery

Safe havens have been weaker today in light of the recovery in risk appetite with both gold and JPY trading lower against the dollar. USDJPY trades 107.94 last, as price hold above the 107.65 level broken earlier in the week. XAUUSD trades 1402.27 last as the cascade back below the 1432.21 level continues. The next support level is not far below at 1391.17.

Oil Soft Despite Bullish EIA Report

Oil prices have been a little softer today despite the rally yesterday in response to the latest EIA reportwhich showed a further drawdown in US crude stores. Inventories fell by a massive 12.8 million barrels last week, the biggest fall since September 2016. Despite the data, crude trades 59.01 last, down off yesterday’s 59.92 highs.

CAD Down, AUD Up

USDCAD has managed to hang onto positive territory so far today as weaker oil prices offset the weakness in USD. CAD has been well supported over recent weeks given the broad USD weakness and rising oil prices. This should see the BOC maintaining its resilient tone at the next meeting. USDCAD trades 1.3122 last.

AUDUSD continues to stride higher today and is now within kissing distance of the .70 resistance level.The level capped last month’s recovery and is an important pivot point for the Aussie. If price breaks back above here, we could see the start of a broader recovery from the current W bottom. Above .70, and the next level to watch, will be the bearish trend line coming in around the mid to high .70s