The Euro is consolidating at the top end of its current trading range as Greece concerns begin to hit the markets. Interest rate differentials are beginning to widen, which reflects the fear of holding riskier assets. Looking forward, confidence surveys will be the impetus for moving the market during the balance of the week. Support on the EUR/USD currency pair is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1.1293.
Greece default concerns are hitting markets, with Eurozone spreads widening and Italian, Spanish and Portuguese 10-year yields up more than 10 basis, while the Greek 10-year is heading for the 11% mark again and peripheral stock markets underperform. That the Greek government is reaching the end of the line was already evident in the fact that it had to use its IMF reserves to repay its IMF loans and now there are reports that Greek banks are running out of collateral. A Greek government spokesman said that Greece will pay salaries and pensions at the end of the month, but that may mean there may be no money left to repay outstanding loans.
Confidence numbers will be the data focus during the coming week. Eurozone GDP data showed a broadening of growth at the start of the year, but recent confidence indicators have been mixed and this week’s round of May ZEW, PMI and Ifo readings will be watched carefully. Concerns about the strength of the U.S. recovery, along with the slowing in Chinese growth, are weighing especially on investor sentiment. The ZEW survey which is scheduled to be released on Tuesday should decline to 48 from 53.3 in the previous month.
The Eurozone May manufacturing PMI is scheduled for Thursday is seen falling to 51.7 and the services reading to 53.8 median 53.9, while the German IFO which is scheduled for Friday is expected to decline to 108.4 in May from 108.6 in April. But, all remain at high levels and the various PMIs are still firmly above the 50 point no change mark, consistent with ongoing, albeit moderate growth, which so far has been driven mainly by domestic demand and consumption.
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