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Weekly Fundamentals – 06 April 2015
THE WEEK AHEAD FUNDAMENTALLY – KEY DATA TO WATCH OUT FOR
Last week was all about the NonFarm Payroll figure which took place on Friday when most markets were celebrating the Easter break.
We have written a new MACRO piece on the number so rather than repeat ourselves readers can access the article here.
This week whilst reasonably light on economic data is pretty full of Central Bank announcements.
► USD: USD starts on Monday when FOMC Member Dudley speaks. His response to questions is what the markets will be focusing on. We also have the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI which has just been released at 56.5 close to consensus of 56.6.
Wednesday is the important day for the USD when we have the latest FOMC Meeting Minutes. As always market participants will dissect the wording to try and understand if the FED’s stance towards interest rates has changed.
On Thursday we have the customary Unemployment Claims number which is estimated to show that a further 283,000 joined the ranks of claimants.
► EURO: There is only one item of note for the Euro this week which occurred today with the release of Spanish Unemployment Change. This was expected at -18,300 and came in at a much better -60,200.
► GBP: On Tuesday we have the release of Services PMI which is expected at 57.1.
On Thursday we have the Official Bank Rate Statement which should no increase in rates maintaining Base Rate at 0.5%. We also have the far more important MPC Rate Statement. Like the FOMC Minutes market participants will be analyzing the wording to see whether the BOE’s stance on interest rates has changed.
Friday sees the announcement of Manufacturing Production expected at 0.4%.
► YEN: On Tuesday we have two items. Firstly we have the Current Account figure expected at 0.61TR. More importantly we have the BOJ Monetary Policy Statement.
On Wednesday we have the BOJ Press Conference. This is as important as the previous day’s Monetary Policy Statement.
► AUD: AUD news starts on Monday with Retail sales forecasted to be 0.4%.
On Tuesday we have both the Cash Rate which is the interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries expected to be unchanged at 2.25% and the important RBA Rate Statement.
► CNY: Only one item of note for the CNY which takes place on Thursday with CPI which is expected to be 1.3%.
OUR VIEW: n interesting week with four of the main central banks making announcements.
Market participants will be hanging on every word both spoken and written to try and ascertain whether the bankers will continue to remain accommodative, turn more hawkish or in fact push out interest rate hikes further out.
It will be volatile.
Stay nimble. Good luck trading.
CHECK OUR INTERACTIVE ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR FULL LIST OF UPCOMING DATA RELEASES
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