The Week Ahead: Keep It Steady

Trade of the week

USDCAD Comes Under Renewed Pressure

Wednesday will see heightened volatility in the Canadian dollar. The consumer price index (CPI) will indicate whether inflation has picked up, an upbeat number would boost the loonie at the greenback’s expense. Later on, the Bank of Canada is due to announce its interest rate decision. Resilience in the housing market and improved business sentiment could lead the BoC to issue a positive outlook. A rally in the Canadian dollar would resume the pair’s downtrend from last November. 1.3000 would be the immediate target, while 1.3100 around the 20 and 30-day moving averages will be a key resistance level.

AUDJPY Hovers Under Key Resistance

Brighter trade prospects allowed the Australian dollar to rally back to its highs from last summer. As the Bank of Japan issues its rate decision this week, markets widely expect the bank to keep its monetary policy steady for the time being. An upbeat growth outlook could support the yen in the short term. However, improvement in global sentiment is likely to favor the Aussie in the medium term. The pair is about to test the previous high of 76.50. A breakout on the upside could trigger a rally towards 77.30.

EURGBP Looks for Opportunity to Bounce

The euro’s recent recovery has much to do with signs of economic stabilization and an optimistic tone from the ECB in December. An assertive central bank on Thursday could further lift the single currency. On the flip side of the coin, soft UK retail sales have slammed a brake on the pound’s rally. A disappointing employment figure on Tuesday could fuel speculations of a BOE rate cut, and push the pound into new lows. 0.8460 is a major support level for the euro to rebound. On the upside, the psychological level of 0.8600 needs to be lifted before any protracted rally.

Gold Enters Consolidation Phase

Global sentiment remains upbeat after the US and China signed the “phase one’ trade deal, in which China agreed to buy $200 billion worth of US products. However, a number of market commentators fear that the truce is brittle. Chinese growth has slowed down drastically. It may seem too optimistic to believe that China has the capacity to absorb a 50% increase in American imports. The precious metal may continue to grind sideways after its meteoric rise. 1535 near the 20-day moving average is the immediate support.