The Week Ahead: Out Of The Woods Yet?

Trade of the week

USDCHF Makes A Comeback

The US dollar has been holding strong against major currencies ahead of the Fed’s first meeting of the year. Market participants eagerly await the central bank’s policy outlook for 2020. As trade sentiment improves, most expect rates to stay low until inflation picks up. A confident Fed could maintain the greenback’s upward trajectory. The downside risk, though less likely, would be a dovish stance which would undercut market optimism. The dollar has recouped most losses from mid-January. 0.9760 will be seller’s stronghold to keep the downtrend intact.

EURJPY Struggles To Stay Up

The single currency could carry on the sell-off triggered by a passive ECB last week. Policymakers pledged to stick with the bond-buying programme, and if needed, cut interest rates until inflation makes its return in the euro zone. As a result, markets will be extremely sensitive to this Friday’s CPI data. A better-than-expected figure may provide strong relief and lift the euro against its peers. If not, the euro could reverse to a downtrend. The psychological level of 120.00 is a key support to maintain traders’ optimism.

GBPCAD Makes A Bullish Attempt

The British pound could be the mover and shaker next week as the UK will officially leave the European Union on Friday. The EU parliament is set to ratify the withdrawal agreement, after which Britain will enter an 11-month-long transition period. The BOE’s inflation report and rate decision on Thursday will certainly add up to the pound’s volatility. As uncertainty around future UK-EU trade relations looms, a dovish central bank could pour cold water on the latest rally. 1.6950 on the bullish trend line is a major support. A breakout above 1.7280 may trigger an extended rally towards December’s high of 1.7700.

Brent Crude Drops Towards November’s Lows

Oil markets have been rattled by latest developments in the coronavirus outbreak in China. As Asia celebrates the Lunar New Year, the timing could not be worse. While Chinese authorities rush to contain the crisis, markets expect widespread travel restriction in the country, which may bring adverse impacts to the region’s economic activity. A reduction in oil demand could further depress the price in the coming weeks. The crude is looking for support at 60.40. Should it fail to bounce back, 58 could be the next target.