Thursday 17th July: Daily Technical Outlook and Review.

For the readers’ benefit:

Price action confirmation: simply means traders will likely wait for price action to confirm a level by consuming an opposing supply or demand area, then entering a trade on a possible retracement, this may occur on the lower timeframes also.

Pending orders: means pending orders are likely seen.

EUR/USD:

Daily TF.

A nice bit of bearish action is being seen on the daily timeframe, as price is pushed further south likely heading towards daily demand at 1.34760-1.35265. A reaction may well be seen here, but a break below could also happen due to this area seeing multiple touches already which likely weakened demand (little buy orders seen).

4hr TF.

The sellers have closed below the low 1.35746 with a near full-bodied bearish candle; price then was seen hesitating for a while where buying pressure must have been weak at this point because a retest of the aforementioned low was not even seen. This could have been pro money taking partial profits there and accumulating their position for the next move down.

Price is trading around the 4hr demand area at 1.35018-1.35375 at the moment. This area does appear to be rather weak, take a look at the two arrows at the bottom of the chart, notice how deep these two tails have already penetrated the area, it is very likely there is not going to be many buy orders left in here.

As a quick reminder, the green arc pattern represents possible pro money action in that while they were rallying price north, they were spiking south consuming demand/buyers thus clearing the path for possible selling activity. The low 1.35746 seemed to be the last obvious place where buyers may have been lurking, and that has been consumed. So, taking all of the above into consideration, a full break of the aforementioned 4hr demand area may likely be seen sometime soon.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
• The P.A confirmation buy order (Red line) set just above demand (1.35018-1.35375) at 1.35417is now active. Buyers will have to PROVE this area by consuming the majority of the sell orders around the high marked with an arrow at 1.35714 in order for us to consider setting a pending buy order.

• Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below the decision-point supply area (1.36632-1.36485) at 1.36416. The reasoning behind placing a pending sell order here is due to the simple fact we have seen buyers consumed lower around the lows 1.36013, thus making it a low-risk high-probability trade.
• P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen just below supply (1.37224-1.37028) at 1.36894. A P.A.C order was selected here due to the reaction seen at the aforementioned supply area proving its validity. However, pro money may well decide to push price higher into this supply area if/when price returns to it, thus making it a risky trade for a stop above the high 1.36995 which could be very easily be stopped out if a pending sell order was set, hence the need to wait for confirmation.

Quick Recap:

The daily timeframe shows the sellers are pushing price hard south towards daily demand at 1.34760-1.35265, while on the 4hr timeframe, the sellers have well and truly consumed the low 1.35746 and have now pushed price down to 4hr demand at 1.35018-1.35375 where sellers will likely try their best to completely consume all the demand here and break below it.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 1.35417 (Active-awaiting confirmation) (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 1.36416 (SL: 1.36584 TP: Dependent on price action approach). P.A.C: 1.36894 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

GBP/USD:

4hr TF.

The higher picture resembles the following:

• Buyers are still seen deep within weekly supply territory at 1.76297-1.67702, with a little interest being shown by the sellers at the moment.
• The daily timeframe still shows price is currently trading in no man’s land between daily supply above at 1.76297-1.73024 and daily S/R flip level seen below at 1.69712.

Price did the unexpected!  After we saw a break of the high marked with an arrow at 1.71428, it shot up like a rocket, but missed the round number 1.72000 by about 10 pips or so, and this is where the sellers took over.

Since we did not fully hit the aforementioned round number level, supply is still expected to be around this area. If we think about it this way, why would price stop 10 pips away from a level millions of traders are no doubt watching? This would confuse a lot of traders, no? The high 1.71905 printed just before the round number 1.72000 is a nice area to fakeout when, or indeed if price does return to this area. Traders on the timeframes lower than the 4hr would see this as a likely level to sell at, no doubt placing their stops a few pips above the round number 1.72000. Pro money likely know this, and will use It to their advantage by pushing price hard into the aforementioned round number stopping out tons of traders who are both attempting to fade the level, and to buy the breakout, what does this give pro money? BUY orders for them to sell into! So still do watch this round number level for a bearish reaction that may be seen soon.

Since the sellers are in control at the moment, where could they be likely taking price? An obvious area would be the round number 1.71000, but an area that would give pro money the best price and possibly enough liquidity (sell orders in this case) would be just below at the 4hr S/R flip area (1.70617-70459), so do keep on an eye on both of these levels for a possible bullish reaction.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above demand (1.70617-1.70459) at 1.70662. The reason a pending buy order has been set here is because the buyers have now proved this area by consuming sellers around the high marked with an arrow at 1.71428 thus possibly clearing the path north up to around the round number 1.72000 area. A retracement down to the 4hr S/R flip area at 1.70617-1.70459 is expected soon to gather liquidity, which should in turn fill the aforementioned pending buy order in the process.
• No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
• P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen just below the round number 1.72000 at 1.71943. We have placed a P.A confirmation sell order here simply because these psychological levels are prone to deep tests/spikes, so sometimes it is better to wait for that all important confirmation.

Quick Recap:

Price advanced after consuming the high 1.71428 marked with an arrow, with little to no retracement being seen beforehand. Our P.A confirmation sell order set just below the round number 1.72000 at 1.71943 missed being triggered in by around 10 pips or so! The sellers are now in control, the possible areas they may visit are of course, the round number 1.71000, and below at the 4hr S/R flip area (1.70617-1.70459) where we also have a pending buy order set just above at 1.70662.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 1.70622 (SL: 1.70423 TP: Dependent on price approach) P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy orders are seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment.  P.A.C: 1.71943 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

AUD/USD:

4hr TF.

The higher picture resembles the following:

• The weekly timeframe shows price is consolidating at the moment (0.94600/0.92046) with a break out yet to be seen.
• Buyers and sellers are currently seen trading in between daily supply at 0.95425-0.94852 and an important daily low below at 0.93208 where price is currently trading at the moment.

It was reported in the last analysis that the selling should not effectively stop just yet as the path is seen quite clear down to at least 4hr demand at 0.93208-0.93417. Bullish price action did start to be seen, but, again this was reported in the last analysis that it would only likely last up to the minor 4hr S/R flip level at 0.93765, which again was proved to be correct as the buyers could not manage to close above the aforementioned level.

Its decision time now on this Aussie pair!  A break below the 4hr demand area (levels above) could very well see price testing the round number at 0.93000 at the very least, and with a little effort from the sellers, a drop down to a 4hr decision-point area at 0.92566-0.92736 could happen. The buyers are actually beginning to show interest out of the 4hr demand area at (levels above), where could the buyers possibly bring price to? Most of the sellers are no doubt consumed at the minor 4hr S/R flip area at 0.93765, and just above there a spike/wick marked with an arrow 0.93973 has likely consumed most of the supply around the 0.93933 area (circled), so this just leaves the next area above, a 4hr decision point at 0.94408 that could still have unfilled sell orders lurking there. It will be interesting to see how this current price action unfolds!

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
• P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above the decision point level (0.92566-0.92736) at 0.92775.  The reason for placing a P.A confirmation buy order here rather than pending buy order is simply because we were trading just above a daily demand ‘buy zone’ at 0.92046-0.92354, meaning pro money could very well just ignore this level completely and trade deeper into the aforementioned daily demand area, so, confirmation is the order of the day!

• Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below supply (0.95425-0.95096) at 0.95052. A pending sell order is placed here due to this being an area where pro money was interested in before; see how close price came to the supply area? (Levels above), this indicates possible strong supply (selling pressure), so the next time price visits we can expect some sort of reaction.
• The pending sell order (Green line) set just below the decision point level (0.94408) at 0.94382 is now active. Our second take-profit target has been hit at 0.93360, so do keep an eye on our third and final target seen just below at the round number 0.93000.
• No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Quick Recap:

Our short position triggered way above at the 4hr decision point level (0.94408) at 0.94382 is looking in great shape with our second take-profit level just within a 4hr demand area (0.93208-0.93417) at 0.93360 now being hit, our third and final target is just below at the round number 0.93000. The buyers are unfortunately beginning to show some interest around the aforementioned 4hr demand area, if the buyers are intent on taking prices higher, things may not look good for our short position as there is very little in the way of trouble supply areas to stop price trading back up to our entry level at 0.94382.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: No pending buy orders seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 0.92775 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 0.95052 (SL: 0.95467 TP: Depending on price approach)0.94382 (Active-2nd target hit) (SL: 0.94677 TP: [1] 0.93678 [2] 0.93360 [3] 0.93000.  P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders seen in the current market environment.

USD/JPY:

4hr TF.

The higher picture resembles the following:

• The weekly timeframe shows price is trading around a long-term S/R flip level support at 101.206 with a positive close below yet to be seen.
• Buyers and sellers on the daily timeframe are currently trading within a range with resistance being seen above at 102.713 and daily demand seen below at 100.747-100.967.

A rally higher to the 4hr decision-point level at 101.754 has been seen as reported in the last analysis may happen. In all honesty the selling seen around the aforementioned 4hr decision-point level is not fantastic; we were definitely expecting a more powerful bearish reaction!

Something that is interesting though, take a look at that beautiful-looking tail (marked with an arrow), this tail/spike likely has consumed a load of buyers there, and potentially cleared the path for a bigger move to the downside. Very much like the Aussie pair, it is decision time on this pair, a break above this area could likely force price to test at the very least the round number 102.000, and with some buying effort, the 4hr supply area at 102.191-102.104. Conversely a reaction to the downside could bring prices possibly down to (if the majority of the buyers are indeed consumed around the D/S flip area at 101.400-101.465) the 101.227 area as this was an obvious area where pro money decided to advance price north.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above the round number 101.000 at 101.020. The reason for setting a pending buy order here is because we are currently trading around a weekly support level (101.206). We would not normally set a pending order around psychological levels such as these, but since we are in a great higher-timeframe location it is worth the risk.
• New pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above the 101.227 area at 101.249. The reason a pending buy order has been set here is because this was clearly an area where pro money buyers decided to rally prices higher, thus opening the possibility of unfilled buy orders still being active there.
• No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below supply (103.294-102.983) at 102.953. A pending sell order was set here due to this being an area where likely unfilled sell orders are.
• The pending sell order (Green line) set just below a decision-point level (resistance, 101.754) at 101.696 is now active, so do keep an eye out for a first-take profit level set at 101.465.
• P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen just below supply (102-191-102.104) at 102.074. A P.A confirmation order was used here purely for the simple fact we are trading around a higher-timeframe weekly support level at 101.206 meaning we may see a small reaction, but nothing to write home about, hence the need for confirmation!

Quick Recap:

A rally to the 4hr decision-point level at 101.754 has been seen, the sellers at this point in time are not showing a great deal of interest, which is disappointing to say the least as we have only recently been filled on our pending sell order set at 101.696. A break above here could see price testing at the very least the round number 102.000, conversely a break below could see price trading all the way down to at least the 101.227 area which is where pro money made a decision to rally prices north in the first place.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 101.020 (SL: 100.786 TP: Dependent on price approach) 101.249 (SL: 101.153 TP: Dependent on price approach). P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy orders are seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 102.953 (SL: 103.317 TP: Dependent on price approach)101.696 (Active) (SL: 101.862 TP: [1] 101.465 [2] 101.227) P.A.C:102.074 (SL: 102.214 TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

EUR/GBP:

Daily TF.

The push down from the daily S/R flip level at 0.79751 has been quite aggressive. Price is currently seen trading quite deep within daily demand at 0.78862-0.79206 with not much interest being shown from the buyers at present.

4hr TF.

The tail marked with an arrow at 0.79251 was clearly a very important clue that demand was well and truly cleared around this level, as price has indeed dropped like a rock. A tiny bit of buying interest was seen around a 4hr minor support level at 0.79139, but was nothing to get excited about.

Price has now dropped into 4hr demand at 0.78862-0.79048 which was reported may happen a week or so back. The amount of buyers and breakout sellers around the aforementioned 4hr minor support level is likely unimaginable, they were more than likely trading there unaware of the potential 4hr demand area below (levels above). Trading is currently taking place deep within this 4hr demand area and the buyers are seen reacting off of the round number 0.79000 at the moment.  Considering our higher-timeframe location, we are favoring buys out of the 4hr demand area just mentioned. If the buyers manage to consume the sellers around the high 0.79170, we could possibly see a nice move up to the 4hr S/R flip level at 0.79358 at the very least.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• The pending buy order (Green line) set just above demand (0.78862-0.79048) at 0.79076 is now active, so do keep an eye out for our first take-profit level to be hit at 0.79170.
• No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
• No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Quick Recap:

The sellers have been on a rampage not letting any buyer stand in their way! They have now consumed the buyers around the 4hr minor support at 0.79139 and dropped down into 4hr demand at 0.78862-0.79048, where the buyers are beginning to show some interest trading off of the round number 0.79000. If the buyers can overcome the sellers around the 0.79170 area, we could possibly see a nice move up to the 4hr S/R flip level at 0.79358 at the very least.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 0.79076 (Active) (SL: 0.78846 TP: [1] 0.79170 [2] 0.79358 [3] 0.79679) P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy orders are seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders are seen in the current market environment.

USD/CAD:

4hr TF.

The higher picture resembles the following:

• Price is currently seen trading out of weekly demand at 1.05715-1.07008.
• Much like the weekly timeframe above, the daily timeframe shows price has traded out of daily demand at 1.05874-1.06680 into a daily decision-point area at 1.07508-1.07293, which has now been broken north.

It was reported in the last analysis that a break above the 4hr supply area at 1.07508-1.07434 could well happen, this has indeed been seen with price now retesting this area as 4hr demand. There is very little, well actually there is nothing we see that would likely cause a problem to the buyers if they decided to rally price up to the round number 1.08000 right now.

Price could very well react off the aforementioned S/D flip area and rally north, but there is a beautiful small looking 4hr decision-point area just below at 1.07207-1.07324 which is where the initial decision was made to break above the 4hr supply area (levels above) meaning there are possibly unfilled buy orders left around this area, what great R: R this trade offers if we target the round number 1.08000!

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• New pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above the decision point (1.07207-1.07324) at 1.07347. The reasoning behind setting a pending buy order here is because this is the area pro money decided to break above 4hr supply at 1.07508-1.07434 meaning there are probably unfilled buy orders still lurking around this area.
• P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above the round number 1.07000 at 1.07047. The reason a P.A confirmation buy order was set here is simply because a pending buy order would be too risky as (on this timeframe) there is no logical area for a stop loss order to be placed.

• The pending sell order (Green line) set just below a small supply area (1.07508-1.07434) at 1.07386 has been stopped out.
• New P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen just below the round number 1.08000 at 1.07952. The reason a P.A confirmation sell order was set here is simply because a pending sell order would be too risky as (on this timeframe) there is no logical area for a stop loss order to be placed.

Quick Recap:

A break above the 4hr supply area at 1.07508-1.07434 was recently seen. Price is now testing the aforementioned area which is now 4hr demand. Price could very well react off the aforementioned S/D flip area and rally north, but there is a beautiful small looking decision-point area just below at 1.07207-1.07324 which is where the initial decision was made to break above the 4hr supply area (levels above), which is also where we currently have a pending buy order set to go at 1.07347.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 1.07347 (SL: 1.07184 TP: 1.08000 [May be subject to change]). P.A.C: 1.07047 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: There are no pending sell orders seen within the current market environment. P.A.C: 1.07952 SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

USD/CHF:

4hr TF.

The higher picture resembles the following:

• The weekly timeframe is showing price consolidating just above weekly demand at 0.85664-0.88124.
• Daily supply at 0.90372-0.90042 has seen a lot of action over the past few weeks with no break north seen yet. Price is currently capped between the daily supply level just mentioned, and the daily S/R flip level below at 0.88608.

After the high marked with an arrow at 0.89311 was consumed, there was literally no strong selling opposition left for the buyers to contend with, until price reached the high 0.89557, or so we thought! Notice how clean price action moved through the purple trend line area? This is because there were simply limited sellers left there as most of them had been consumed already.

A little road bump was caused at the high 0.89557, but with the sellers appearing very weak, it was nothing to get excited about. Price is now well and truly possibly on its way up to the round number 0.90000. Again, why is price action able to push so hard north at the moment? Take a look at the green arc pattern, this is trying to show how pro money have likely consumed the majority of the sellers as price was dropping, thus clearing the path for buyers in the meantime.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• The Pending buy order (Green line) set just above the round number 0.89000 at 0.89042 is now closed, our final take-profit level was hit at 0.89514.
• P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above the low 0.88546 at 0.88586. The reason that a P.A confirmation buy order was set here rather than a pending buy order was simply because there is no logical area for a stop loss, and the low (level above) will be likely prone to deep tests, or worse, a positive break below, hence the need to wait for confirmation.

• The pending sell order (Green line) set just below the highs 0.89557 at 0.89514 was stopped out.
• New pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below the round number 0.90000 at 0.89974. The reason a pending sell order was set here is because there is a logical area for a stop-loss order, and this is a huge round number level which will likely see a reaction on its first touch.
• No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Quick Recap:

Our pending buy order set at 0.89042 has been closed in full profit; however, our pending sell order set just below the high 0.89557 at 0.89514 was stopped out in the process. Price is now seen trading heavily long and there is very little supply left that could likely stop it up until at least the huge round number 0.90000 where we currently have a pending sell order set at 0.89974.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 0.89042 (Closed in full profit) (SL: 0.88886 TP: [1] 0.89243[2] 0.89514). P.A.C: 0.88586 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 0.89974 (SL 0.90140 TP: Dependent on price approach).P.A.C There are currently no P.A confirmation sell orders seen in the current market environment.

XAU/USD (GOLD)

Daily TF.

The bears have been well and truly selling price hard recently, however the buyers have begun to make an appearance around an ignored daily decision-point level at 1292.52. If price breaks below here, be prepared for a bullish reaction of some kind around the daily S/R flip level at 1277.36.

4hr TF.

Price has indeed broken below the low 1304.77 as reported would likely happen in the last analysis. Price now remains trading between the aforementioned low, which is now resistance, and a 4hr S/D flip area at 1284.77-1280.53.

There is very little to the left on this timeframe (other than the ignored daily decision-point level on the daily timeframe – see above) that will likely cause much of a problem to the sellers if they want to reach the aforementioned 4hr S/D flip area. However we should not totally discard the fact that price may rally back up to the 4hr S/R flip level at 1304.77 before price finally drops to the 4hr S/D flip area (levels above).

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
• P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above the S/D flip area (1284.77-1280.53) at 1285.71. We have set a P.A confirmation buy order here simply because we could not find a logical area for the stop-loss order, so to avoid any deep spikes; we have decided to wait for confirmation.

• No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
• New P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen just below the S/R flip level (1304.77) at 1303.40. The reason a P.A confirmation sell order was used here is simply because price could very well ignore this area completely and revisit the D/S flip area just above at 1307.58-1315.67, hence the need to wait for confirmation.

Quick Recap:

The low 1304.77 was indeed broken south leaving buyers and sellers trading between the aforementioned low, which is now 4hr resistance, and a 4hr S/D flip area below at 1284.77-1280.53. Price could possibly advance a little to the aforementioned 4hr resistance before a drop down to the 4hr S/D flip area is seen (levels above).

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: There are currently no pending buy orders seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 1285.71 (SL: (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: There are currently no pending sell orders seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 1303.40 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).