Thursday 7th August: Daily Technical Outlook and Review.

For the readers’ benefit:

Price action confirmation: Simplymeans traders will likely wait for price action to confirm a level by consuming an opposing supply or demand area, then entering a trade on a possible retracement, this may occur on the lower timeframes also.

Pending orders: means pending orders are likely seen.

EUR/USD:

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

• Weekly timeframe: Price is currently trading within weekly demand at 1.32940-1.34847, and at the time of writing, the sellers seem to be overcoming any buying pressure in the market, could we see a break below this weekly demand area sometime soon?
• Daily timeframe: Selling action has been seen out of the daily decision-point area at 1.34433-1.34202, with price now seen trading around a daily level of interest at 1.33559.

Keeping in mind we are now trading around a neat-looking daily level of interest at 1.33559, and for the time being the buyers seem to be mildly active around this area. If price is intent on trading north from here, the first area we would like to see fully consumed of sellers is the 1.33774/1.34 areas, possibly the 4hr decision-point area above at 1.34234-1.34084.

On the other hand, below, far to the left of current price action is very interesting. Demand seems to be consumed all the way down to the round number 1.33, take note of the tails sent south while price was rallying north, this likely indicates pro money buyers sent price down to collect unfilled buy orders as they were rallying higher, hence the likelihood of demand consumption there (take a look, it is a thing of beauty!). With the above in mind a drop lower could be something pro money is looking at. So, if price is going south, pro money will no doubt require buy orders to sell into (liquidity), meaning a push up to the 4hr decision-point area at 1.34234-1.34084 may be seen beforehand.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
• No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below the D/S flip area (1.34760-1.34943) at 1.34753.The reasoning behind setting a pending sell order here was because this is the area we believe on this timeframe pro money sellers made the decision to push prices south into (what was at the time) 4hr demand at 1.33984-1.34404, with the possibility of unfilled sell orders still waiting there.
• New pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below a 4hr decision-point area (1.34234-1.34804) at 1.34053. If price is intent on trading south, this will be the likely area of supply pro money sellers will use to collect the much-needed liquidity for a drop south.
• The pending sell order (Green line) set just below a decision-point area (1.34428-1.34305) at 1.34266 has now been closed in full profit as our third and final take-profit level was hit at 1.33559.
• No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Quick Recap:

A push down to the 1.33559 area has been seen, if buyers are intent on taking prices higher, watch for the 1.33774/1.34 areas, and possibly the 4hr decision-point area at 1.34234-1.34084 to be consumed of supply. Conversely, a decline in price is not out of the question since demand to the far left seems pretty much consumed down to around the round number 1.33, however if this is indeed the plan, we are expecting a small rally up to the aforementioned 4hr decision-point area at (our pending sell order is set just below at 1.34053) before a selloff is seen.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy orders are seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 1.34753 (SL: 1.35031 TP: Dependent on price approach) 1.34053(SL: 1.34275 TP: Dependent on price approach). P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders are seen in the current market environment.

GBP/USD:

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

• Weekly timeframe: A decline in value has been seen over the past few weeks within weekly supply at 1.76297-1.67702, which has seen price trade into weekly demand at 1.66917-1.67939. Buying interest is currently being seen out of this weekly demand area, if a push much higher from here happens, this could indicate potential weakness within the weekly supply area. However, a break below this weekly demand area would likely indicate selling strength, and we should then at least expect lower prices down to around the weekly demand area at 1.64589-1.66339.
• Daily timeframe: Price has traded right into a daily demand area at 1.67367-1.68440 which is neatly located around the weekly demand area (levels above). A bit of buying interest has been seen out of this daily demand area; however it appears to be short lived, as active sellers seem to be coming into the market around the daily R/S flip level at 1.68963. If we see a break below the aforementioned daily demand area, this could indicate potential weakness from the weekly demand area (levels above).

The sellers have reacted beautifully off of the 4hr decision-point area at 1.68919-1.68789 which has push price deep into 4hr demand once again at 1.68013-1.68585.

Price action is currently trapped on the 4hr timeframe between the aforementioned small 4hr decision-point area and 4hr demand area.  A break above the 4hr decision-point area and round number 1.69 would be a good sign buying strength is coming into the market, and conversely, a break below the 4hr demand area and round number 1.68 would likely indicate weakness in not only the daily demand area at 1.67367-1.68440 but also potentially the weekly demand area at 1.66917-1.67939 as well.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• The pending buy order (Green line) set just above the decision-point area (1.68013-1.68585) at 1.68631 is now active, so do keep an eye on our first take-profit level set at 1.69214.
• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above 4hr demand (1.67389-1.67561) at 1.67601. The reason for setting a pending buy order here is because if price reaches this far south, we are then located deep within not only weekly demand at 1.69917-1.67939, but also daily demand at 1.67367-1.68440 making it very likely we will see some sort of a reaction north here.
• No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below the decision-point area (1.69939-1.69663) at 1.69626. We have set a pending sell order here due this being the area pro money made the push below (what was at the time) 4hr demand at 1.69512-1.69708, so there may very well be unfilled sell orders left there.
• The P.A confirmation sell order (Red line) set just below a 4hr decision-point area (1.68919-1.68789) at 1.68747 is now active. Sellers will need to confirm this area by consuming some or most of the buyers around the 4hr demand area below at 1.68013-1.68585 for a pending sell order to be set.

Quick Recap:

A bearish reaction has been seen out of the 4hr decision-point area at 1.68919-1.68789 which has push price deep into 4hr demand once again at 1.68013-1.68585. A break below the aforementioned 4hr demand area and round number 1.68 would likely indicate weakness in not only the daily demand area at 1.67367-1.68440, but also potentially the weekly demand area at 1.66917-1.67939 as well, conversely a break above this area and the round number 1.69 would possibly indicate buying strength from the higher-timeframe demand areas mentioned above.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 1.68631 (Active) (SL: 1.67932 TP: [1] 1.69214 [2] 1.69497) 1.67601 (SL: 1.67314 TP: Dependent on price approach). P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy orders are seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 1.69626 (SL: 1.70063 TP: Dependent on price approach).  P.A.C: 1.68747 (Active-awaiting confirmation) (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

AUD/USD:

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

• Weekly timeframe: Price is still seen in a consolidation with the upper limits at 0.94600 and the lower around the 0.92046 area. Last week saw sellers becoming quite aggressive if we compare to the last three weekly candles. Could we see a drop down the lower limits of this consolidation area this week?
• Daily timeframe: A positive daily close below the 0.93208 level happened last week, with price later seen retesting it as resistance. Selling pressure is currently being seen from around this level, if a bigger move south happens, we may see a push to the downside towards daily demand at 0.92046-0.92354.

Price did in fact drop further south meaning demand was well and truly consumed around the green trendline level. At the time of writing, a fakeout of the round number 0.93 has been seen (just missing our pending buy order by about 8 pips including spread at 0.92855), with the buyers pushing price back up to the 4hr D/S flip area at 0.93208-0.93417 where sellers are beginning to show some interest now.

For the time being buyers and sellers are currently trapped between the aforementioned 4hr D/S flip area and the 4hr decision-point area below at 0.92566-0.92736. A break above will likely answer our question regarding whether or not a fakeout below the daily range low 0.93208 has occurred (see daily chart), conversely, a break below the aforementioned 4hr decision-point area will likely confirm it was not a fakeout, and price could well be heading to the 4hr decision-point level below at 0.92384 which is conveniently located just above daily demand at 0.092046-0.92354.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above the decision point area (0.92566-0.92736) at 0.92855. The reason we have set an order such as this here, is simply because we believe majority of the sellers have now been consumed around the 4hr D/S flip area at 0.93208-0.93417, so a pending buy order (level above) has been set awaiting a possible return.
• No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current environment.

• No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current environment.
• No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Quick Recap:

For the time being price remains capped between a 4hr decision-point area below at 0.92566-0.92736 and a 4hr D/S flip area above at 0.93208-0.93417. We literally have to wait now for a breakout of where price is confined, and in all honesty, we are taking a risk leaving our pending buy order set at 0.92855 active, since a break either way is possible.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 0.92855 (SL: 0.92691 TP: Dependent on price approach).  P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy orders seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders seen in the current market environment.

USD/JPY:

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

• Weekly timeframe: Price remains capped between the long-term weekly R/S flip level at 101.206, and the weekly supply area above at 105.432-104.065.
• Daily timeframe: The three spikes seen above the daily resistance level at 102.713 possibly consumed the majority of the sellers around this area, which likely cleared the path up to around daily supply at 104.104-103.802; however, price could see a sell off due to pro money liquidity requirements (not enough sellers to buy into) before this area gets hit.  Two areas of demand where price could decline to have caught our eye, the first being a near-term daily S/D flip area at 101.962-102.257 which price is yet to hit, and the second, the dally demand area much lower at 100.747-100.967 before a stronger advance is seen, so do be prepared for this to possibly happen sometime soon.

Serious selling is currently being seen with little to no interest being seen by the buyers at the moment. Price spiked way above the minor 4hr S/R flip level at 102.714 to around a small 4hr decision-point level at 102.922 where selling action has been seen ever since!

Could we be seeing a touch of our 4hr decision-point area below at 102.027-102.080 soon? It certainly appears that way since we do not see much that will stop price to the left.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above the decision-point level (102.027-102.080) at 102.100. We have set a pending buy order here since this remains the place on this timeframe where pro money likely made the decision to push price up so aggressively, which indicates the strong possibility that unfilled buy orders may still be present and active here.
• No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
• No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Quick Recap:

A push above the minor 4hr S/R flip level at 102.714 to a small 4hr decision-point level at 102.922 has been seen, and ever since then the sellers have remained in control (at the time of writing). We are very much expecting price to continue south down to where our pending buy order is set (102.100) just above the 4hr decision-point area at 102.027-102.080.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 102.100 (SL: 101.971 TP: Dependent on price approach).P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy orders are seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment.  P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders are seen in the current market environment.

EUR/GBP:

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

• Weekly timeframe: A bearish reaction has been seen as price hit weekly supply at 0.80328-0.79780, this could very likely mean we may be heading down to true weekly demand at 0.79631-0.78623, only time will tell though!
• Daily timeframe: Active sellers were certainly lurking around the daily S/R flip level at 0.79751 as price dropped hard and is currently seen trading around daily demand (which should be consumed of demand/buyers now- take a look at the wick below it) at 0.78862-0.79206. If this is indeed true, we could very likely see a push down to the daily demand area below at 0.78117-0.78533 sometime soon which will effectively bring us into heavy weekly demand at 0.76931-0.78623.

The sellers have now fully consumed the 4hr demand area at 0.79240-0.79408 which has potentially cleared the path south to a weak-looking 4hr demand area below at 0.78862-0.79048, which in our opinion is also cleared of demand as well!

Higher timeframes are certainly indicating shorts for the time being (see above), but before pro money can bring prices south, they will no doubt have to attain the required amount of liquidity beforehand. Although price is currently trading south at the moment, it is doubtful, in our opinion that pro money have the liquidity (sells for their buys) they need to push down past the weak-looking 4hr demand area at 0.78862-0.79048. We believe a push north may well be seen, possibly up to around the 4hr S/R flip level at 0.79679, and 4hr supply area just above at 0.79837-0.79713, since this will very likely give pro money sellers the fuel they need to push prices south past the weak looking 4hr demand area into a fresh 4hr demand area at 0.78602-0.78320, and looking at its current location on the higher timeframes (just above daily demand at 0.78117-0.78533 and also just within the upper area of weekly demand at 0.76931-0.78623), it makes this 4hr area of demand all the more juicy!.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above demand (0.78602-0.78320) at 0.78641. The reasoning behind setting a pending buy order here is due to its current location on the higher timeframes. This 4hr demand area is just above daily demand at 0.78117-0.78533 and also just within the upper area of weekly demand at 0.76931-0.78623.
• The pending buy order (Green line) set just above a decision-point area (0.79240-0.79408) at 0.79427 has been stopped out.
• No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below a supply area (0.80264-0.80133) at 0.80110 as this area is beautifully located within daily supply at 0.80328-0.80024, and not to mention the round number 0.8 is begging to be faked up into the aforementioned 4hr supply area, think of all that liquidity for pro money!!
• New pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below a 4hr S/R flip level, and a 4hr supply area (0.79679/0.79837-0.79713) at 0.79657. The reason for setting a pending sell order here is simply because this is the most likely place pro money will retrace price to before a sell off is seen, and this is not even considering how great this 4hr supply area looks with a solid base, and great momentum south from it!
• No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Quick Recap:

The 4hr demand area at 0.79240-0.79408 has been well and truly consumed, and has now potentially cleared the path down to at least the weak-looking 4hr demand at 0.78862-0.79048, where we do not expect much buying interest to be shown. We are however expecting price to rally up to around the 4hr S/R flip level at 0.79679 (pending sell order set below at 0.79657) since pro money will likely not have the required liquidity for a further drop south to where we are watching (fresh 4hr demand at 0.78320-0.78602).

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 0.78641 (SL: 0.78288 TP: Dependent on price approach.P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy orders are seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 0.80110 (SL: 0.80295 TP: Dependent on price approach) 0.79657 (SL: 0.79850 TP: Dependent on price approach) P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders are seen in the current market environment.

USD/CAD:

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

• Weekly timeframe: A push above the monster weekly supply area has been at 1.09592-1.08133, which has now possibly cleared the path up to a nice-looking small weekly supply area at 1.10522-1.09996.
• Daily timeframe: A push above daily supply at 1.09592-1.09156 has been seen, potentially clearing the path up to the next fresh daily supply area at 1.10522-1.10133 (seen just inside the weekly supply area mentioned above).

Once price had consumed some, or in this case, all the sellers around the 4hr decision-point area at 1.09470-1.09354, the path north was free up to a 4hr decision-point level at 1.09865, which as we can all see is exactly where price is trading right now.

We are very wary of the aforementioned 4hr decision-point level, as price still has room above to move (see above regarding the higher-timeframe analysis), so we will be watching price action very carefully here, as a push up to a very attractive 4hr supply area at 1.10388-1.10163 may well be seen, which is conveniently located within both weekly and daily supply areas (1.10522-1.09996…1.10522-1.10133).

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above 4hr demand (1.09032-1.09104) at 1.09136.  The reason a pending buy order has been placed here, is because this 4hr demand area is where pro money likely made the decision to push prices above the 4hr decision-point area at 1.09470-1.09354 making this level very important indeed.
• No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• The pending sell order (Green line) set just below a 4hr decision-point level (1.09865) at 1.09822 is now active, so do keep an eye on our first take-profit level set at 1.09470.
• No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Quick Recap:

A push above to the 4hr decision-point level at 1.09865 has been seen, and our pending sell order (1.09822) has been filled in the process. We are going to be very careful here as there is room to move above to at least fresh 4hr supply at 1.10388-1.10163. Our first take-profit level is set at 1.09470, so hopefully we can at least lock in some profit, if price does indeed decide to trade higher.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 1.09136 (SL: 1.08951 TP: Dependent on price approach).P.A.C:No P.A confirmation buy orders seen within the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 1.09822 (SL: 1.10080 TP: [1] 1.09470 [2] 1.09136) P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders seen within the current market environment.

USD/CHF:

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

• Weekly timeframe: Price is currently seen trading around the weekly decision-point level at 0.90927, could we possibly see lower prices from here?
• Daily timeframe: Buyers and sellers are seen trading between daily supply at 0.91556-0.90985 and a daily S/D flip area below at 0.90372-0.90042 with price trading just within the daily supply area at the moment. For the time being, on this timeframe we are going to wait for a break of either of the aforementioned areas, this will give us a good indication of where price is likely headed next.

A small spike above the round number 0.91 materialized, following this, not much selling interest was seen, we are not surprised as at that point in time, price had yet to touch the 4hr supply area above at 0.91329-0.91141. Nonetheless, price has just hit the 4hr supply and the sellers are beginning to show interest for the time being.

We are currently trading within higher-timeframe supply areas, so this trade should at the very least provide some profit. This trade will give us some confidence if, and only if we see a positive close below the low 0.90845, price is then relatively free down to at least a newly-formed 4hr demand area at 0.90396-0.90516.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above the decision-point level (0.90215) at 0.90233. The reasoning behind placing a pending buy order here is simply because this is the area on the 4hr timeframe where pro money buyers likely made the decision to break above the 4hr supply area at 0.90372-0.90148, hence the possibility there may still be unfilled buy orders lurking around this level.
• No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• The pending sell order (Green line) set just below the 4hr supply area (0.91329-0.91141) at 0.91113 is now active, so do keep an eye out for a first take-profit level to be hit at 0.90845.
• No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Quick Recap:

At the time of writing price is doing exactly as reported it may do in the last analysis. A fakeout past the round number 0.91 into 4hr supply at 0.91329-0.91141 has been seen, which has also filled our pending sell order set at 0.91113 in the process. If the selling pressure continues from here, and the low 0.90845 sees a positive close below, we very much expect a decline in value down to around the 4hr demand area at 0.90396-0.90516.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 0.90233 (SL: 0.90117 TP: Dependent on price approach).P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy orders seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 0.91113 (Active) (SL: 0.91359 TP: [1] 0.90845 [2] 0.90516).P.A.C No P.A confirmation sell orders seen in the current market environment.

XAU/USD:

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

• Weekly timeframe: Price still remains capped between weekly supply at 1391.97-1328.04 and a nice-looking weekly decision-point level below at 1244.08. A little buying pressure is now being seen from around the weekly low 1280.06.
• Daily timeframe: Price once again could not make it down to the major daily S/R flip level at 1277.36 before serious buying pressure came into the market, which at the time of writing appears to be pushing price up to around the daily decision-point level at 1307.13.

Price has now well and truly consumed most, if not all of the sellers sitting around the high marked with a green flag at 1297.20, what a shame price did not initially trade above the aforementioned high (marked with a circle – 1296.91), we would have been in that trade long if it did!!!

All is not lost though; we could still get a long entry if price does indeed trade back to this area. Price is seen pushing hard north at the moment and at the time of writing seems to be reacting off of a 4hr S/R flip level at 1304.77. We, however are watching the area of 4hr supply above it at 1312.07-1308.84, as if we look closely, we can see price actually faked out above a high (immediate left at 1309.12), formed a small supply base, then dropped with great-looking momentum, retail money does not have the funds to do this, pro money does, hence there may well be unfilled sell orders left there, making this an area of interest to us, and as an added bonus this 4hr supply area is sitting smack bang in the middle of a daily decision-point level at 1307.13.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above 4hr demand (1258.40-1264.53) at 1266.09.  The reason a pending buy order has been set here, is because this area in our opinion remains the overall origin of a big rally to the upside, likely meaning there are a lot of unfilled buy orders siting in and around this area.
• New pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above the 4hr S/D flip area (1284.77-1280.53) at 1285.71. We have set a pending buy order here since the buyers have proved this to be an area of interest (they traded above the high marked with a green flag at 1297.20), so for the time being we are now awaiting a return back to this area where our pending buy order will likely be filled in the process.
• The P.A confirmation buy order (Red line) set just above the S/D flip area (1284.77-1280.53) at 1285.71 has now been removed since the buyers did their job and consumed most, if not all of the sellers sitting around the high marked with a green flag at 1297.20, thus allowing us to set a pending buy order awaiting a possible return to this area.

• New pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below a 4hr supply area (1312.07-1308.84) at 1307.61. The reasoning behind setting a pending sell order here is simply because this area likely holds unfilled sell orders since if we look closely, we can see price actually faked out above high (immediate left at 1309.12), formed a small 4hr supply base, then dropped with great-looking momentum, retail money does not have the funds to do this, pro money does, hence there may well be unfilled sell orders left there.
• No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Quick Recap:

A big push north has been seen from the 4hr S/D flip area at 1284.77-1280.53 to a 4hr S/R flip level at 1304.77 where price, at the time of writing is seen trading at. We, however are watching the area of 4hr supply above it at 1312.07-1308.84 (a pending sell order is set below at 1307.61), as we believe this area likely has unfilled sell orders still sitting there, since the area has nice momentum south, and remains fresh.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 1266.09 (SL: 1256.40 TP: Dependent on price approach) 1285.71 (SL: 1278.53 (TP: Dependent on price approach). P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy orders seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 1307.61 (SL: 1313.23 TP: Dependent on price approach).P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders seen in the current market environment.