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Trading Outlook – EUR/USD
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Originally updated: 07:30
Trading Bias: SHORT
Currency pair: EUR/USD
Current Sentiment: Bearish
In today’s trading session we will be focussing on the FOMC statement later in the day to provide a clear direction on the USD for the rest of the week.
Fundamentals:
At this stage of the session I am waiting on the sidelines for market moving news to prompt a movement in price action. The particular economic event of interest today is the FOMC statement, going into the event the majority bias is that the Fed will remove the term patient, which the market has been waiting on to provide a indication as to when the Federal Reserve might raise rates. Having said that it could be the case that they keep their phrasing unchanged – as such we simply want to watch out for the event to get a clear direction on the USD. If the Fed remove the phrase patient we know they are inching closer to rate hikes and the USD will rally if they keep the phrase in the USD will sell off simply because of how much it has strengthened over the past weeks leading up to this event.
Our bias is that the Fed will take a step closer to hiking rates but because of the risk associated with this event I will not be trading into the event and will only look to trade out of it. If they do remove the phrasing we can look at selling EUR/USD which has had a pullback from the low. If they keep their commentary relatively unchanged the USD will weaken in which case I would look at long GBP/USD as a quick 20-40 pip trade, you don’t want to be holding GBP’s against the USD past the session close.
Technicals:
We expect the EUR/USD pair to sell off during today’s session.
There is strong resistance at 1.0650 which could provide trading opportunities should the price pull back. Look for the price to bounce off this level if it retraces back to it.
Remember to be aware of intra-day news as this can very often change the sentiment which makes our trade weaker. Look for any news that could be positive for this pair, which would change the sentiment to bullish.
Other Market Moving News:
On today’s calendar all eyes turn to the FOMC statement late in the session, in early trade we have the UK jobs report, budget, BoE minutes.
We also have Canadian wholesale sales and New Zealand GDP, the NZD softened yesterday following weak a GDT index.
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