Starting today we bring in front, a potential resumption of the long term trend for EUR/USD that is still bearish. For this purpose we begin understanding the waves on a larger time frame at a higher degree, weekly chart here and gradually as the story unfolds, we shall discuss lower timeframes on a daily basis to pick up short term trade setups. As seen here, the pair looks to be terminating its wave (4), within the 5 waves down move within wave C of the corrective structure (not seen here). The pair is stalling at a Fibonacci 0.386 resistance around 1.1810/20 levels for now and is expected to reverse lower. Initial bearish confirmation would be a break below 1.1720 and subsequently 1.1600 levels. Please note that the entire structure from March 2015 has unfolded into a complex correction labeled as A-B-C here.A higher probability remains for a bearish resumption from here. On the flip side, failure to drop below1.1250 levels would indicate another high above 1.1845 levels. The time frame and duration for above setup is several weeks to come by but we shall also pick short term trade setups once the bearish reversal is confirmed.
Initiate shorts now with stop at 1.1870 levels, targeting 1.0350 for long term and 1.1600 for short term.
GBP/USD chart setups:
Starting today we resume discussion of a potential resumption of a long term bearish trend in GBP/USD by looking at the bigger picture. Then on a daily basis, we shall pick short term trade setups, towards the larger trend. The weekly chart in GBP/USD depicted here indicates that the pair has run into resistance zone at a previous (lower degree) wave 4, labeled around 1.3400 levels here. Since September 2016, the pair has produced a corrective rally labeled as A-B-C here and is now terminating into wave (4) around 1.3244 levels, yesterday’s highs. We believe, if this bigger picture and wave count hold true, the pair would be heading south through fresh lows below 1.2000 levels. Please note that the time duration for this opportunity seen is several weeks from now, but we shall pick short term trade setups towards the trend going forward. Resistance should be strong around 1.3250 levels and break below 1.3100 and 1.3000 levels subsequently should be encouraging to bears.
Please, initiate short positions now 1.3205 levels, stop at 1.3285 and target below 1.2000 as long term while 1.2900 as short term.
Today’s event list is almost empty, with no major fundamental triggers.
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