For yesterday’s trading day, the currency pair Pound / Dollar showed a low volatility of 73 points, while maintaining a downward interest. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see how the quotation has gone into the boundaries of the range level of 1.3000 / 1.3050, which forms sluggishly. Information news background continues to arrive in uncertainty. Earlier, Theresa May said that when she returned to Brussels, she would fight for Britain and Northern Ireland, but the response from the EU was not long in coming. Brexit’s chief negotiator for the EU, Michel Barnier, said: “We are of the same opinion that the issue of a British exit from the EU cannot be opened again.” Meanwhile, Theresa May is planning to go to Northern Ireland on February 5 to give a speech in which it confirms the government’s intention to avoid establishing a full-fledged border in the region. Everything that happens in England can be defined as jumping to nowhere.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we are waiting for data on business activity in the services sector in Britain, where no changes are expected. In the afternoon, there will be a package of statistics from the United States.
United Kingdom 12:30 Moscow time – Business Services Index (January): Previous 51.2 —> Forecast 51.1
US 17:45, Moscow – Business PMI (Services PMI) (Jan.): Prev. 54.2 —> Forecast 54.2
USA 18:00 MSK – Non-Manufacturing PMI from ISM (Jan.): Prev 58.0 —> Forecast 57.0
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see a sluggish fluctuation within the range of 1.3000 / 1.3050, with an attempt to find a foothold. It is likely to assume the preservation of the amplitude movement within the framework of this framework, where traders view two positions at once, stretching pending orders.
Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let’s consider them:
– We consider buy positions in case of price fixing higher than 1.3070, perspective 1.31100 – 1.3150.
– We consider selling positions if the price is fixed below the level of 1.3000. Perspective 1.2920 — 1.2850.
Analyzing a different sector of time frames (TF), we see that in the short term, there was an upward interest against the background of stagnation and an attempt at working out. Intraday perspective kept downward interest against the background of correction from 1.3200. The medium-term perspective changed the interest to a neutral one, due to the same prolonged correction.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(February 5 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 20 points. If the stagnation in the region of the range level remains, then the volatility will remain at the same level.
Zones of resistance: 1,3200 *; 1.3300; 1.3440 **; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; *; 1.2830 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.
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