For the last trading day, the currency pair Pound / Dollar showed extremely low volatility of 56 points. As a result, the recent pullback was changed to stagnation. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have a rollback from the value of 1.3100, where the quote came earlier. In fact, the value of 1.3100, together with a Fibo-level of 38.20 (short term), plays a certain point of support, resulting in stagnation within the framework of 1.3130 / 1.3180. Meanwhile, the news background for yesterday had practically no activity. The only thing that can be identified is the US data on the change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector from ADP in February, where there was a decrease from 300K to 183K, but this news did not practically affected the market. The information background had the statement of the European Commission in the person of the official representative Margaritis Schinas. According to him, the EU and Britain are still holding heavy discussions around the Brexit agreement. As of now, not a single solution has been found that would comply with the Brexit agreement, including the protocol for Ireland and Northern Ireland, Schinas said.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we can say the key day of the week that many traders were waiting for. Today is the ECB meeting which will be followed by a press conference where Mario Draghi can give something interesting about future plans and, of course, the fate of the interest rate. Now, you ask why we consider Europe, if we work with the British pound? The fact is that there is a high correlation between these trading instruments, and if one of them changes dramatically, the other can show a “practically” similar oscillation.
16:30 MSK – Press Conference of the ECB.
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quotation is developing around the value level of 1.3180, which we have previously designated as the upper limit of the cluster of 1.3130 / 1.3180. It is likely to assume that the current amplitude of the oscillation is up to the point of the information and news background, here traders carefully monitor the boundaries for breakdown.
Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let’s consider them:
– Positions for buy are considered in case of a clear price fixation higher than 1.3200.
– Positions for sale are considered in case of a clear price fixation lower than 1.3120.
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators have chosen a downward interest because of the current cluster in the short term. On the other hand, intraday perspective changed interest from descending to neutral because f the same cluster while the medium-term outlook remains on the upward interest.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(March 7, was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 27 points. In case of breakdown of the accumulation and support from the information and news background, the volatility of the day can break out of low indicators.
Zones of resistance: 1,3200 *; 1.3300; 1.3440 **; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1.3130 *; 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
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