For the last trading day, euro / dollar currency pair showed a low volatility of 27 points, but that was enough to draw a rollback on the market in general terms. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have two phases. The first reflects the pulse of the end of the past weeks against the background of emissions from the information background. As a result of which, the quote slipped by as much as 70 points, reaching the level of 1.1225 for the accumulation of early April. The second phase reflects the primary stagnation at 1.1235 / 1.1250, where a long-awaited rollback was subsequently received.
Informational and news background was absent due to the celebration of Bright Monday in Britain and the EU. The only thing that was published was the statistics on sales in the secondary housing market of the United States, where there was a decrease from 5.48M to 5.21M.
Today, after long holidays, all market participants have returned. In terms of the economic calendar, we do not have any statistics from the EU. However, for the United States, data on sales of new housing will be published, where they again expect a decline from 667K to 647K.
United States 17:00 MSK – Sales of new housing (Mar): Prev. 667K —> 647K Forecast
Analyzing the current trading schedule, we see that after all, the quotation is still in the rollback phase, even though it has rolled back to the area of the recent accumulation at 1.1235 / 1.1250. It is likely to assume that the pullback will still remain in the market, where traders had previously considered the entry point after the breakdown of the 1.1235 / 1.1250 cluster. The perspective with the primary point is 1.1270. The deeper move is 1.1290-1.1300.
– If you still do not have positions to buy, then it makes sense to wait a bit, fixing the price is higher than 1.1270, or enter at level 1.1250 like mostly, with a primary perspective of 1.1270
– In the case of a clear price fixing lower than 1.1225, the positions for sale are with preservation of bearish interest. The primary perspective is 1.1180.
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that in the short and intraday perspective, an upward interest has appeared against the background of a rollback. The medium-term perspective maintains a downward interest in the market.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(April 23 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 19 points. Due to the end of holidays and the return of trading volumes to the market, it is likely to assume that volatility may increase, but I do not expect anything extreme that would exceed the daily average.
Zones of resistance: 1.1300 **; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100
Support areas: 1.1180; 1.1000
* Periodic level
** Range Level
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