For the last trading day, the pound / dollar currency pair showed a low volatility of 64 points, as a result of having the structure of the corrective move. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see a steady corrective move on the general weakening of the American currency. The total correction at the current moment is 125 points, reaching a short-term Fibo level of 61.8. Considering the graph in general terms, we see the sequence of measures in the downward trend “Impulse — Correction —- Impulse —- Correction”, where the focus of attention, of course, is the maximum of the previous correction on May 27 (1.2746), as in the case of its breakdown, the clock sequence, like the trend itself, can change its meaning. The news background had statistics on business activity in the UK manufacturing sector, where the data went worse than expected, from 53.1 to 49.4. For a short time, the pound was under pressure, showing a decline, but the picture was eventually replaced by growth due to statistics from the United States. In the west, there were similar data on PMI, where liquefaction was also recorded from 52.8 to 52.1, which provoked further closing of positions on the dollar. We turn to the information background, and we see that the background of the trade war, where the United States has already managed to embed its “BUT” everywhere, is strongly pressing on the dollar, arguing that everyone is obliged to them. Go ahead, and we see that US President Donald Trump arrived in Britain on an official visit and has already managed to insert his “BUT” regarding the “divorce” process. Trump thinks that as the UK continues to work on a plan to secede from the European Union. The United States pledges to maintain close relations with both parties. The United States will continue to prepare for any outcome and coordinate its efforts with governments, financial institutions and international organizations to protect their interests. Trump said he supports Brexit, which will be implemented in such a way as not to affect global economic and financial stability, while ensuring the independence of the United Kingdom.
If we recall Trump’s earlier statements saying that the UK should not pay the EU for Brexit and should only bend its own line, otherwise go out without a deal, then everything falls into place.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data on business activity in the UK construction sector in May, where, according to forecasts, the figure will remain at the same level of 50.5. In the afternoon, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak, where, perhaps, we will hear at least some hints about the life of the bet.
Analyzing the current trading schedule, we see that after a slight stagnation within the short-term Fibo level of 61.8, the quotation went on a further increase, reaching as a result, the 1.2685 mark in the form of a puncture. Whether the correction will continue, the question is actually twofold, as the background for Brexit is undoubtedly held, although there is still a lull until the election of a new party leader. Thus, if the background of the trade war at the moment prevails, it is still possible to lose the dollar positions in the 1.2720 area, but then we analyze it further. In turn, traders are already eyeing short positions, since entry points, in principle, are available.
Based on the available information, it is possible to expand a number of variations, let’s consider them:
– Positions to buy, as discussed in the previous review, was point 1.2670, perspective 1.2700-1.2720.
– Positions for sale have so far been out of business in the short term. If viewed from current points, then traders view the value of 1.2650 as an entry point.
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators in the short and intraday perspective occupied the upward side against the background of the current correction. The medium-term perspective maintains a downward interest on the general background of the market.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(June 4 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 30 points. There is a prerequisite for accelerating volatility due to the information background, but you need to monitor emissions. Otherwise, we can remain in low amplitude.
Zones of resistance: 1.2770 **; 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) *; 1.2920 *; 1.3000 **; 1.3180 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1.2620; 1,2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
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