For the last trading day, the currency pair pound / dollar showed a low volatility of 53 points, but this amplitude was strong enough to keep the recovery phase on the market. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the quotation is gradual, but restores short positions after the recent corrective move, having a current recovery of more than 70% relative to the correction. Considering the graph in general terms, we see that the tact in the global calculus is correct: impulse – correction – impulse, where in case of breakdown of the local minimum 1.2604 (May 23), the main downward trend will continue its march.
On the other hand, the information and news background, in principle, did not have any strong statistics. The only thing that was highlighted was the S & P / Case-Shiller house price index in the United States, where they waited for the decline, and received it from 3.0% to 2.7%. Returning to the information background, which precisely holds the interest of speculators, we have a statement by the head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, who said he would transfer the meeting with the outgoing British Prime Minister Theresa May on the sidelines of the EU summit in Brussels. However, revising the agreement on exit conditions kingdom from the community is excluded.
“I will have a short meeting with Theresa May, but I was crystal clear – there will be no revision of the agreement,” Juncker said.
From all the above, we understand that the Brexit theme remains with all the negative background that exists, and with the new Prime Minister, nothing will change and perhaps, the situation will only get worse.
Today, we do not have an empty economic calendar. Thus, we should all hope for a spontaneous information background.
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quotation, after all, is moving towards the previously set forecast, and is a prerequisite for speedy convergence with the point of support in the form of the level of 1.2620. It is likely to assume the preservation of the current mood while waiting for a descent to the area of 1.2600 / 1.2620. Furthermore, it is necessary to track the behavior of quotes for fixation points within this range of 1.2600 / 1.2620. Thus, work will be conducted according to the method of breakdown / rebound.
Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let’s consider them:
– Buy positions will be considered, in the case of a slowdown in the range of 1.2600 / 1.2620, followed by refinement.
– We already have positions for sale. The deal goes towards 1.2600 / 1.2620. Further refilling is made in case of a clear price fixing lower than 1.2600, not a puncture.
Analyzing the different sectors of timeframes (TF), we see that the indicators in the short, intraday and medium term, are configured in a downward plan due to the general market background.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(May 29 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 23 points. In case of preservation of the inertial course and breakdown of the local minimum of 1.2604 (May 23), we can expect an increase in volatility. Otherwise, we will again see the flaccid amplitude of oscillation.
Zones of resistance: 1.2770 **; 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) *; 1.2920 * 1.3000 **; 1.3180 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1.2620; 1,2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
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