UK Retail Sales – Forex News Trading

Our focus today turns to UK Retail Sales, for any potential trades based on the data.

Due:
June 18, 9:30am BST

Frequency:
Monthly

Prior: 1.2%
Expected: 0%
Low: -0.7%
High: 0.9%

Source:
Office for National Statistics

Description:
This release shows the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. This is a primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. When consumption demand increases, not only does it show that people have incomes and businesses have revenues, but it also puts upwards pressure on inflation.

Summary:
The pound remains buoyant after stellar average earnings numbers and MPC minutes which indicate some members are close to voting for a rate hike. The bullish sentiment remains and therefore the bias for this trade is to the upside, however GBP has recently rallied aggressively which increases the chance of a pullback on a poor number.

Expected Market Reaction:
UK Retail Sales numbers are important and they do have the ability to move currencies, especially with immediate spikes in one direction if the numbers come out with a deviation outside the high and low estimates. A good number may see pound’s recent rally extended while a bad number will see a pullback which should be viewed as a buying opportunity.

Take a look at my weekly Forex news events overview here in order to learn more about interpreting the upcoming UK Retail Sales data.

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