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US FOMC Meeting Minutes
Today we have FOMC Meeting Minutes from the US which is possibly a big release at 7pm London time. We will be looking out for any clear tone of hawkishness or dovishness in the minutes to gauge the next leg of greenback direction.
If the minutes show more discussion in line with what other Fed speakers such as Bullard have been saying, on the hawkish side, then the dollar will rise. If the minutes however focus on the cautious attitude that was conveyed via the statement then the USD may sell off. The third alternative is no surprises and the dollar continues to trade mixed.
Description:
The minutes provide a detailed record of the FOMC’s most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.
Summary:
These minutes relate to the March 16 meeting where the Fed left rates on hold as was expected, but the statement was much more dovish than the market expected. Further, there was a greater than expected downgraded of the Fed’s own expectations about rate hikes during 2016, and Yellen was decidedly dovish during the press conference. The FOMC questioned the recent rapid rise in core inflation and instead focused on consumer survey-based expectations of inflation which had moved marginally lower. They also cited global financial risks as a reason to pause raising rates. There was very little positive commentary about the excellent employment situation or the economy as a whole; they did not prepare the market for an April hike.
Other Fed speakers, before and since the FOMC meeting, have however sung a slightly different tune, with many acknowledging the potential for an overshoot of the inflation target and suggesting that the market is not pricing in as many hikes as it should for 2016. These speakers have also stated that April is a live meeting. These conflicting messages have seen the dollar trade lower and in a mixed fashion of late.
US FOMC Meeting Minutes release was also covered in weekly risk events video. You can watch it here.
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Source:: US FOMC Meeting Minutes
