US Session Bullet Report – Retail Sales to resurrect markets

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Today, in the US, the retail sales for August are expected to show a 0.3% M/M increase following a 0.6% M/M increase in July. Industrial production as well as Empire Index will also be released. Markets are fairly calm awaiting the news described above but also FOMC rate decision on Thursday.

FED member Stanley Fischer mentioned earlier in September that economic data in the lead up to the FED meeting could still influence the outcome of the decision which indicates that many members might still be undecided. So if retail sales surprise, the market has a lot of potential to move expectations about the FED as retail sales make up around 25% of GDP making it a very critical component.

Overall, markets are choppy and very range bound but this should change following the news at 12:30 GMT

Trading Quote of the Day:

“Volatility is greatest at turning points, diminishing as a new trend becomes established”

George Soros.

EURUSD
Pivot: 1.1335
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.1335 with targets @ 1.128 & 1.125 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.1335 look for further upside with 1.137 & 1.14 as targets.
Comment: The upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 1.1335.

GBPUSD
Pivot: 1.5475
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.5475 with targets @ 1.537 & 1.5335 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.5475 look for further upside with 1.551 & 1.554 as targets.
Comment: As long as the resistance at 1.5475 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.537 remains high.

 

AUDUSD
Pivot: 0.71
Likely scenario: Long positions above 0.71 with targets @ 0.7165 & 0.719 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.71 look for further downside with 0.707 & 0.703 as targets.
Comment: The RSI lacks downward momentum.

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USDJPY
Pivot: 120.1
Likely scenario: Short positions below 120.1 with targets @ 118.85 & 118.6 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 120.1 look for further upside with 120.65 & 120.95 as targets.
Comment: The RSI advocates for further decline. The pair has broken below a rising trend line and an horizontal support area.

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USDCAD
Pivot: 1.321
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.321 with targets @ 1.3285 & 1.331 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.321 look for further downside with 1.3175 & 1.315 as targets.
Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

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USDCHF
Pivot: 0.972
Likely scenario: Short positions below 0.972 with targets @ 0.966 & 0.964 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.972 look for further upside with 0.9745 & 0.9795 as targets.
Comment: The upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 0.972.

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GOLD
Pivot: 1110
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1110 with targets @ 1098 & 1094 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1110 look for further upside with 1116 & 1119 as targets.
Comment: As long as 1110 is resistance, likely decline to 1098.

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OIL
Pivot: 44.9
Likely scenario: Short positions below 44.9 with targets @ 43.4 & 42.75 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 44.9 look for further upside with 45.45 & 46.05 as targets.
Comment: As long as 44.9 is resistance, likely decline to 43.4.

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DAX
Pivot: 10230
Likely scenario: Short positions below 10230 with targets @ 9953 & 9881 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 10230 look for further upside with 10340 & 10525 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is bearish and calls for further decline.

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TIME IS IN GMT(+3)

Report prepared by the easy-forex VIP desk at 06:20 GMT.

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