US Session Bullet Report – the calm before the Storm

The Market has taken a breather today and trading is directionless with the exceptions of GOLD which is under pressure but still over the significant support of $1117. EURUSD is hanging around 1.1230 after a high of 1.1265 last night. The pair retreated to 1.1165 however further direction will be dependent on US rate hike expectations. Today is a bank holiday in the UK and volumes are on the lower side. Some minor data to be released later in the US (PMI). Feedback from the Jackson Hole meetings suggest that the FED is still on course to raise rates this year however no one knows yet if it will be September or October.

A September rate hike by the Fed remains a close call. Currently, there is much global uncertainty and U.S. markets have been volatile amid concern over slowing growth in China, but another positive payrolls reading this Friday should keep the Fed on track with considering higher rates ahead of the end of the year or even in September.

A very busy week awaits us with rate decisions from the RBA and the ECB, GDP data from Canada and Australia, ending with NFP numbers in the U.S and Canada.

Trading quote of the day:

“The ability to foresee that some things cannot be foreseen is a very important quality”.

– Rousseau

EURUSD
Pivot: 1.1265
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.1265 with targets @ 1.1155 & 1.11 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.1265 look for further upside with 1.131 & 1.135 as targets.
Comment: As long as 1.1265 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

GBPUSD
Pivot: 1.5445
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.5445 with targets @ 1.5325 & 1.5265 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.5445 look for further upside with 1.55 & 1.557 as targets.
Comment: The RSI lacks upward momentum.

AUDUSD
Pivot: 0.7175
Likely scenario: Short positions below 0.7175 with targets @ 0.7095 & 0.7065 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.7175 look for further upside with 0.7205 & 0.725 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bearish.

USDJPY
Pivot: 120.6
Likely scenario: Long positions above 120.6 with targets @ 121.75 & 122.35 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 120.6 look for further downside with 120.25 & 119.75 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.

USDCAD
Pivot: 1.3195
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.3195 with targets @ 1.33 & 1.3345 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.3195 look for further downside with 1.316 & 1.314 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is well directed.

USDCHF
Pivot: 0.958
Likely scenario: Long positions above 0.958 with targets @ 0.9675 & 0.973 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.958 look for further downside with 0.955 & 0.9505 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is well directed.

GOLD
Pivot: 1125
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1125 with targets @ 1141 & 1146.5 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1125 look for further downside with 1117 & 1109 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.

OIL
Pivot: 42.75
Likely scenario: Long positions above 42.75 with targets @ 46 & 46.9 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 42.75 look for further downside with 41.75 & 40.55 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is supported by a bullish trend line.

DAX
Pivot: 10440
Likely scenario: Short positions below 10440 with targets @ 10040 & 9920 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 10440 look for further upside with 10650 & 10735 as targets.
Comment: As long as 10440 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

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TIME IS IN GMT(+3)

Report prepared by the easy-forex VIP desk at 06:20 GMT.

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