USD Rally Pauses Following Data Miss

USD Softer After Data Miss

The US dollar has softened a little over the final European morning session of the week. However, price is still on course to end the week firmly in the green. Data yesterday showed that while Q2 GDP was in line with expectations at 2.4%, QoQ core PCE was lower than forecast at 1.7%. Looking ahead today we have the annual core PCE reading which is forecast at 1.6%. USD index trades 98.50 last, with price remaining above the broken 98.38 high.

EUR Lower

EURUSD remains under pressure today. Price is sitting just above the 1.1025 low having broken down steadily all week under the weight of a stronger US dollar. EUR remains capped by expectations that the ECB will announce a package of easing measures. The eurozone CPI released today showed inflation printing just 0.9% in August, further highlighting the challenges facing the ECB.

GBP Holds Up Against Parliament Suspension

GBPUSD has stabilized a little today. This comes following yesterday’s losses in response to news that, as per the Prime Minister’s request, the UK parliament has been suspended. However, opposition MPs are adamant that they will deliver a means to block Johnson from forcing a no-deal Brexit, which, for now, is keeping GBP bid. GBPUSD trades 1.2182 last, down off the 1.2309 weekly highs.

Risk Rallies

Risk assets have strengthened again today as equities remain buoyed by the positive developments in communications between the US and China. A more moderate tone from both sides has increased optimism for the next round of trade talks due in two week’s time. SPX500 has broken above the 2931.44 level today, trading 2942.48 last.

Safe Havens Soften

Safe havens have come under pressure today, given the recovery in risk sentiment, with both JPY and gold a little weaker against USD. USDJPY trades 106.41 last, with price still holding back above the 106.29 level for now. XAUUSD is sitting back on the 1522.75 level today, which is a major long term level to keep an eye on.

Crude Breaks Trend Line

Oil prices have softened a little today, though remain firmly positive on the week in light of another reported drawdown in US crude stores and better risk appetite. The EIA reported a 10 million barrel drawdown last week, nearly 5 times the forecast amount. However, news of new record high US crude production capped gains somewhat. However, price remains supported by a more optimistic backdrop to the US-China trade story. Crude trades 56.13 last, sitting above the broken trend line from July highs for now.

CAD Up, AUD Down

USDCAD has softened a little today as the general recovery in risk appetite, along with higher oil prices over the week, has helped lift CAD. USDCAD is still hovering around the 1.33 level for now, where price has spent much of the week in consolidation. Later today we have Canadian GDP for July forecast at 1.4%

AUDUSD continues to drift lower today with price grinding back down towards the year to date lows, sitting at .6719 last. Despite a better tone to US-China communications, the pullback in gold and a stronger USD is weighing on AUD which remains tightly congested for now.