USDCAD: So, You Wanna Go SHORT? B4 You Do, You Should Know…
Ok. So everybody and his brother (sister? Uncle? Aunt?) has been looking at this over and over and anticipating a big payday by going SHORT, right? Well, NOT SO FAST!
I (and seems like everybody else here) posted about this large Gartley on the DAILY chart some days ago (see my post under “Related Ideas: ANALYSIS: USDCAD: 2 Bearish Gartley’s Point The Way Down” 4 days ago and also “USDCAD 1 Gartley and 1 Cypher with Bullish Morning Star pattern” posted 18 days ago). Well, it is finally here and completed. But WAIT! Should you go SHORT now??? Let’s go deeper and examine what’s happened and what’s happening now….
As you can see here, on the monthly chart, there’s a very clear cup and handle pattern. Cup&Handle patterns are trend continuation patterns. The cup is already well-formed. Now we are working on the handle. Handles will usually retrace about 1/3 of the cup height generally. But not always! So in fib terms, the handle should retrace down to the 38.2% range but in very strong impulse waves, it might only retrace to the 23.6% as well. Which this handle already has done.. As seen on the chart, around that area, there is also a strong S/R zone that seems to have been tested already.. You’ll also notice that I’ve labeled the large impulse wave up this pair has been on as a 5 wave advance with prices probably completing wave 4 of 5 and expecting wave 5 up..https://www.tradingview.com/x/IzMfUMV5/
DAILY CHART VIEW
Short and sweet…you’ve seen this before, right? https://www.tradingview.com/x/hAY2NtGJ/
Here’s my wave count of what’s possibly happening right now. We could already be in a wave 5 of a 5 wave impulse wave seen on the MONTHLY chart. Explanations are on the chart. https://www.tradingview.com/x/RrDqAHhs/
CONCLUSION: SO WHAT ABOUT NOW?
Of course, this is what everybody wants to know. If I only had a crystal ball….USDCAD is at this moment extremely overbought and due for some relief. It should find it in the form of a RETRACE and NOT a REVERSAL. Prices should fall to hit at least Target 1 of the Gartley but I would not be surprised if it does not reach target 2. I would even be cautious that it might not reach Target 1. I say this because currently, according to my wave count, we are still in a very strong uptrend and just starting on wave (5). This retrace down should only be wave (ii) of wave 1 of the larger wave (5) up. And then wave (iii) of wave 1 should start. I’ll definitely be on the lookout for wave (iii) to start.
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