USDJPY Monday 23rd June: Weekly technical outlook and review.

On the weekly timeframe, price still remains trading above the S/R flip level at 101.254, with no attempt to break below seen yet.

The recently closed weekly candle, formed what the majority of traders call an ‘indecision candle’ with no break of the previous weekly high/low (102.650/101.606) being seen.

Price still remains capped between supply above at 105.441-104.075 and demand below (S/R flip level) at 101.254, with the long-term bias still being seen as long on this timeframe.

usdjpyweekly

Daily TF.

Price is currently capped between demand (S/D flip area) at 101.532-100.787 and supply (minor resistance) at 102.645 with an attempt to break either area not yet being seen.

A break below the S/D flip area (levels above) could force price to test demand at 99.571-100.255, this could be a lovely demand area to help facilitate a fakeout of the weekly S/R flip level support on the weekly timeframe at 101.254. A break above daily -timeframe minor resistance at 102.645 may see buyers pushing price all the way up to supply at 104.114-103.812.

usdjpydaily

4hr TF.

Price remains capped between the decision point seen above (supply) at 102.367, and demand below at 101.427-101.660. At the time of writing, it is very difficult to guestimate which area will likely see a break first on this timeframe, as we have not got much information from the higher timeframes regarding possible direction (see above). The safest bet at the moment would be to play the limits where price is capped (levels above), but do remain vigilant to the fact a break of either one of these areas is possible (levels above) anytime during the week.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

  • Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen deeper within demand (101.427-101.660) at 101.542. A pending order is valid here since pro money are frequently seen testing deeper in confirmed demand areas such as this, for active buyers.
  • No P.A confirmation buy orders (red line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • Pending sell orders (Green line) are visible at 102.980, deep within supply (103.055-102.742), this area may well appear to be weak now, but the way price reacted at the circled area within supply indicates pro money activity, meaning sell orders may be left unfilled there, so a pending sell order is permitted.
  • Near-term pending sell orders (Green line) are seen at 102.367. A pending order is valid here since this is the area where pro money made the ‘decision’ to take prices lower into demand (101.427-101.660), unfilled sell orders were likely left there in the process.
  • No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

usdjpyh4

Quick Recap:

Price is currently capped between the decision point (supply) above at 102.367, and demand below at 101.427-101.660. A break of these areas are very unlikely to be seen today, however a re-test of the decision point may happen soon, which will subsequently fill our pending sell order at 102.367 which was so very nearly filled last week!

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 101.542 (SL: 101.389 TP: 102.000 but may well change if the market sees any new developments) P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy orders are seen in the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 102.980 (SL: 103.108 TP: 102.117, but may well change if the market sees any new developments) 102.367 (SL: 102.458 TP: Dependent on how price action approaches this area). P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders are seen in the current market environment.

 

For the readers’ benefit:

Price action confirmation: simply means traders will likely wait for price action to confirm a level by consuming the opposing supply or demand area, then entering a trade on a possible retracement, this may occur on the lower timeframes also.

Pending orders: means pending orders are likely seen.

Sources: IC Markets Trading Desk

 

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