Weekly Fundamentals – 28 February 2015

THE WEEK AHEAD FUNDAMENTALLY – KEY DATA TO WATCH OUT FOR

Last week was all about how the Greeks would respond to their new governments capitulation. Nothing really happened until Thursday when we began to witness strikes on the streets. The Euro fell strongly as a result and closed the week virtually on its lows.

This week attention will remain Euro focused but attention will also be aimed across the Atlantic as this Friday is the first Friday of the month and the customary NonFarm Payroll data.

► USD: A lot of data for the USD on every day of the week. On Monday we have Manufacturing PMI expected at 53.4. On Tuesday Fed Chairperson Yellen speaks on bank regulation and supervision. Wednesday witness’ ADP Non-Farm Employment Change which is estimated to be at 219,000. This figure excludes both nonfarm and government workers. We also have Non-Manufacturing PMI anticipated to be 56.6.  On Thursday we have the customary Unemployment Claims which is guesstimated to show a further 319,000 joining the ranks of claimants. Friday is the big day when we have Non-Farm Employment Change expected at 241,000, Trade Balance at -41.6Bn and the Unemployment Rate thought to be 5.6%.

► EURO: On Monday we have Eurozone CPI which is anticipated to show a deflationary -0.5%. Tuesday we have the Spanish Unemployment Change thought to be 10,5000. On Thursday we have the Minimum Bid Rate expected at 0.05%. This is the interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system. Importantly we have the ECB Press Conference also.

► GBP: Whilst most attention is beginning to concentrate on the fast approaching general election we do have a number of key data points which all the political parties will be closely analyzing in order to score a few political points of their opponents. Monday sees Manufacturing PMI anticipated to be 53.5. On Tuesday we have Construction PMI thought to be 59.0. Wednesday we have Services PMI anticipated to be 57.6. Finally on Thursday we have the Official Bank Rate announcement which is expected to remain unchanged at 0.50% and the MPC Rate Statement.

► YEN: On Sunday night we Capital Spending estimated to show an increase of 4.1% and Manufacturing PMI at 51.5. On Friday we have Leading Indicators expected at 105.9%. This is a level of a composite index based on 11 economic indicators.

► AUD: Monday sees the release of Building Approvals which is expected to show a decline of -1.8%, Cash Rate expected at 2% which is the interest rate that is charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries, and the RBA Rate Statement. Tuesday we have the GDP number which is anticipated to show a growth of 0.7%. Lastly on Wednesday we have Retail Sales at 0.4% and the Trade Balance estimated at -.93Bn.

► CNY: Only one item of note for the CNY this week with the release on Sunday evening of the HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI thought to be 50.1.

OUR VIEW: 

Attention on both sides of the Atlantic with the ongoing Greek drama and NonFarm Payrolls in the USA. Anticipate heightened levels of volatility and hence trading opportunities.

Stay nimble. Good luck trading.

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