The U.S. dollar closed with modest gains ending the month of September on a high note. Solid economic data continued to suggest that the U.S. economy was on track to keeping the 4% GDP growth. The euro continued its decline led by concerns from Italy.
The Italian government passed a budget with deficit higher than the EU’s limit. This is expected to cause some friction between the governments in Rome and Brussels.
The markets open to a new trading month. Data from Japan showed that the Tankan manufacturing index fell to 19 while the non-manufacturing index fell to 22.
The European trading session will see the release of the monthly manufacturing and services PMI numbers. Activity in the sectors is expected to remain broadly unchanged from the previous month.
The monthly unemployment rate from the EU is expected to show a decline to 8.1% from 8.2% previously.
The UK will be releasing its monthly manufacturing PMI for September. The median forecasts put the index to ease to 52.5 from 52.8 previously.
In the NY trading session, data will start with Markit’s final manufacturing PMI followed by the ISM’s manufacturing PMI figures.
Economists forecast that the ISM activity in the manufacturing sector eased to 60.3, down from 61.3 just the month before.
EURUSD intraday analysis
EURUSD (1.1595): The EURUSD currency pair extended strong declines on the last trading day of the month in September. Price action however pulled back just a few pip shy from the 1.5400 level of support. In the short term, the support level at 1.1547 – 1.1525 remains the next level of interest. A rebound off this level could push the EURUSD to the upside. Resistance is seen at 1.1651 level which could be tested in the near term. Further gains could extend the rally toward the previously breached support area of 1.1745 – 1.1715 where resistance could be formed.
GBPUSD intraday analysis
GBPUSD (1.3030): The GBPUSD currency pair tested the support at 1.3028 by Friday’s close. As expected, the support level seems to be holding for now. We could expect some consolidation taking place at this level in the near term. A potential break down below this support could push GBPUSD lower toward the 1.2808 level of support. However, we expect to see a modest rebound in price action taking place.
XAUUSD intraday analysis
XAUUSD (1188.70): Gold prices managed to rebound after falling to the support level of 1183.30. However, the resistance level at 1197.50 remains a key level to breach. We expect gold prices to maintain a range within the said levels with a breakout from this level suggesting the near term direction in prices. The bias remains flat for the moment but the risk of a downside breakout is rising.