Carney Says UK Resilient In No-Deal Scenario

Dollar Down on Data Miss

The US dollar traded slightly lower over the European morning today. We have seen a shallow recovery over recent sessions. However, upside has been limited following a weak US consumer confidence number yesterday for June.

Looking ahead today, traders have the advance goods trade balance for May, which will be especially important given the recent re-escalation in the trade war between the US and China. USD index trades 95,74 last, sitting just atop the 95.72 level for now.

EUR Recovers on USD Weakness

EURUSD has been a little higher against the US dollar today following recent days of declines. Despite expectations of ECB easing to come, USD weakness has kept EUR bid. Price has remained above the 1.1343 level, trading 1.1359 last.

GBP Higher on Carney Comments

GBPUSD has ripped higher this morning in response to comments from Bank of England governor Mark Carney. The governor stated that the bank still feels that the core of the UK financial system will be resilient to a “no deal” Brexit scenario, should that outcome materialize. GBPUSD trades 1.2699, firmly up off the 1.2658 level support.

Risk Recovers Despite Middle East Tensions

Risk assets are recovering well today also following an earlier route in response to rising tensions in the Middle East. Fresh US sanctions on Iran wobbled the markets earlier in the week. However, risk appetite has stabilized again for now with the SPX500 trading 2933.48 last, making its way back up to the 2940.37 level.

Gold and JPY Down

The recovery in risk appetite has seen weakness among the safe havens today. Both gold and JPY are trading lower. USDJPY has rocketed back up above the 107.65 level today, following a break below the 107.08 level earlier in the week. XAUUSD has continued the reversal lower from the 1432.21 level today, trading 1406.59 last. As for now, the market moves away from focusing on potential Fed easing.

Traders Waiting on EIA Report

Oil prices remain supported today as the continuing escalation in tensions between the US and Iran drives anticipation of oil supply disruption in the region. Crude prices have reacted higher to recent headlines which continue to point to the risk of military conflict. Crude trades 58.77, having broken back above the 58.04 level. Oil has also been boosted by yesterday’s API report which indicated a further drawdown in US crude stores. Traders are now waiting on the release of the main EIA report today to confirm that of API, which should further support prices.

Commodity Currencies Carry on Higher

USDCAD has continued to move lower today. Price is briefly running down to levels not traded since February. Higher oil prices have been supporting the Canadian dollar which has been a key beneficiary of recent USD weakness. Should today’s EIA report confirm the crude drawdown, we could see USDCAD continue its slide into the US session, especially if US data comes in weak again.

AUDUSD has continued its rally for a seventh straight day today. The recovery in risk appetite, the weaker US dollar and the recent strength in gold, have all combined to support the currency. Price is now just shy of testing the .70 level which capped the recovery last month. A break back above this level could pave the way for a bigger recovery in the coming months.