EU Session Bullet Report – USD back with a vengeance

We expect a ranging market today, due to the absence of market moving events, with only euro area consumer confidence the single news of interest.

Post FOMC we see a stronger USD backed by hawkish comments from the FED members that indicated either that their vote for a rate rise was close last Thursday, or that the FED should raise rates this year, instead of next which most market participants expected. Overnight action in Asia was muted due to a Japanese holiday.

EURUSD broke down the 1.1212 support and is trading at 1.1175 at time of writing. Key support is seen at 1.1165 and then 1.1080. GBPUSD still holds above 1.5475 key support and is trading at 1.5500. USDJPY rallied to 120.60 overnight with next resistance being 121.00. AUDUSD fell from 0.72 to 0.7120.

Meanwhile GOLD’s initial Bull Run after the FOMC is halted at 1139 with support levels being 1124.50 and 1116.

Trading Quote of the Day:

“The basic concept that applies to both poker and trading is that the primary objects is not winning the most hands, but rather maximizing your gains.”

Jeff Yass

EURUSD
Pivot: 1.1255
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.1255 with targets @ 1.115 & 1.112 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.1255 look for further upside with 1.132 & 1.1355 as targets.
Comment: The pair has validated a bearish flag pattern and remains on the downside.

GBPUSD
Pivot: 1.557
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.557 with targets @ 1.545 & 1.539 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.557 look for further upside with 1.566 & 1.572 as targets.
Comment: As long as the resistance at 1.557 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.545 remains high.

AUDUSD
Pivot: 0.718
Likely scenario: Short positions below 0.718 with targets @ 0.7105 & 0.708 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.718 look for further upside with 0.721 & 0.723 as targets.
Comment: As long as 0.718 is resistance, likely decline to 0.7105.

USDJPY
Pivot: 120.1
Likely scenario: Long positions above 120.1 with targets @ 120.75 & 121 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 120.1 look for further downside with 119.7 & 119.35 as targets.
Comment: The 50-period intraday MA is providing support.

USDCAD
Pivot: 1.317
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.317 with targets @ 1.331 & 1.335 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.317 look for further downside with 1.311 & 1.307 as targets.
Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

USDCHF
Pivot: 0.9655
Likely scenario: Long positions above 0.9655 with targets @ 0.976 & 0.979 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.9655 look for further downside with 0.9625 & 0.9585 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.

GOLD
Pivot: 1142
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1142 with targets @ 1127 & 1124.5 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1142 look for further upside with 1147 & 1150.9 as targets.
Comment: As long as 1142 is resistance, likely decline to 1127.

OIL
Pivot: 45.55
Likely scenario: Long positions above 45.55 with targets @ 47 & 47.64 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 45.55 look for further downside with 44.24 & 43.55 as targets.
Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

DAX
Pivot: 10075
Likely scenario: Short positions below 10075 with targets @ 9780 & 9640 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 10075 look for further upside with 10245 & 10340 as targets.
Comment: As long as the resistance at 10075 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 9780 remains high.

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TIME IS IN GMT(+3)

Report prepared by the easy-forex VIP desk at 06:20 GMT.

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