Friday 9th January: The NFP decision could cause wild swings and any invalidate technical setups seen today – trade cautiously.

EUR/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that the Euro continues to receive punishment as a major weekly demand area seen at 1.1875-1.2095 has been consumed. This consequently forced the market down towards a major weekly Quasimodo support level seen at 1.1758. Could the buyers see a little action here?

Daily Timeframe: Contrary to what we’re seeing on the weekly timeframe, the daily timeframe is showing signs that the Euro may continue to weaken, as yesterday saw price break below a daily demand area at 1.1776-1.1838. Additionally, below this area we see very little active demand (check out the consumption tails to the far left at 1.1700/1.1659) until price hits the 1.1443-1.1533 area.

4hr Timeframe: The recent selling momentum forced price to close below 1.1800, which resulted in further selling down to the 1.1750 mark – a common reactive point for the Euro. This level was clearly supportive enough to allow the buyers back into play and subsequently rally the market back up to retest 1.1800.

We would like nothing more than to join this down trending market, but we cannot ignore the fact that price is currently trading around a major weekly Quasimodo support level (see above) at the moment; even when the daily timeframe is indicating a further decline is to be expected (see above).

In the event that we see 1.1750 broken, we’d be very interested in selling any retest that is offered, but other than this, our finger is staying off the sell button for the time being. Conversely, buying here is tricky since we have near-term supply coming in at 1.1895-1.1856, which from a risk/reward perspective is not sufficient enough to condone buying the Euro at this point in time.

Current buy/sell levels:

• Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
• Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

AUD/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe reveals that price has recently pushed below a major weekly demand area seen at 0.8064-0.8460, which as a consequence could entice further selling down towards another weekly demand area coming in at 0.7699-0.7974. Nevertheless, as always, do be prepared for the possibility that a fakeout could take place here.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that yesterday saw follow-through buying from the bullish pin-bar candle that formed on Wednesday within daily demand at 0.7958-0.8070 (sits on top of the weekly demand area mentioned above at 0.7699-0.7974). Nonetheless, is this really enough to consider buying the Aussie when there’s daily supply looming just above at 0.8214-0.8160, and not forgetting the weekly demand area (see above) that has just been taken out? Let’s see what the 4hr timeframe has to say about this.

4hr Timeframe: The recent buying saw price close above 0.8100, and at the time of writing is being retested as support, which if successful will likely attract further buying up to at least a 4hr minor Quasimodo resistance area seen at 0.8161-0.8158 (located just below the aforementioned daily supply area).

Buying with lower-timeframe confirmation around the 0.8100 handle and targeting the aforementioned minor 4hr Quasimodo resistance area, is in our view a valid trade setup. However, do remember, we have the mighty NFP announcement later today, so remain vigilant during that time.

Current buy/sell levels:

• Buy orders: Currently watching lower-timeframe price action around the 0.8100 area (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).
• Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

USD/JPY:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that the buyers and sellers are still ranging between a weekly Quasimodo resistance level coming in at 122.18, and a major weekly swap level seen at 115.50.

Daily Timeframe: Like the weekly timeframe, we’re also seeing a consolidation on the daily timeframe. The market is currently capped to the downside by a daily swap area at 119.19-118.04, and to the upside by a daily supply area seen at 121.83-120.66 (Which was essentially a reaction off of a longer-term daily supply area visible at 122.61-121.54).

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that price is currently trading between 120.00 and 119.00. Buying and selling in between this band is something we’re not comfortable doing as we do not see any logical take-profit targets.

In spite of this, we do see potential setups beyond these levels. A break above the 120.00 could well see a rapid retest forcing the market up towards a 4hr decision-point supply area at 120.99-120.66, which we’ll happily take advantage off if/when the time comes. Conversely, a break below 119.00 could equally see a prompt retest forcing the market down towards the 118.00 level, which again we’ll happily participate in.

Therefore, with the above taken into consideration, we feel it may be best to wait for the NFP result to be announced later on today, as this will likely generate enough volume to break either of the above levels.

Current buy/sell levels:

• Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
• Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

USD/CAD:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that a major weekly supply area at 1.1806-1.1473 has recently been breached. As a result of this, the path north towards a major weekly swap level lurking just above at 1.1893 is likely clear.

Daily Timeframe: Tuesday saw the USD break above the 1.1800 handle, which – like the weekly timeframe has potentially cleared the path north for price to test the aforementioned weekly swap level. Yesterday saw a successful retest of 1.1800 which gives us added confidence that a rally higher in price is likely on the horizon.

4hr Timeframe: It was mentioned in the previous analysis that we’re going to be watching this pair for lower-timeframe buying confirmation around 1.1800. We saw a beautiful long setup on the 30 minute timeframe at around 1.18066, which is where we were filled long around 3pm GMT time. We currently have our stop set at breakeven so from here on its risk free. Ultimately, our plan is to try and ride this trade out up to the aforementioned weekly swap level for very respectable profits.

However, in the event that the NFP numbers are poor, and the USD crashes below 1.1800, we’ll then have our eyes firmly on the 4hr demand area seen below at 1.1730-1.1749 for potential buying opportunities.

Current buy/sell levels:

• Buy orders: 1.18066 [Live] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: stop is currently set at breakeven).
• Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

DAX 30:

Weekly Timeframe: There is clear buying interest being seen around a weekly decision-point demand area (9126-9467) at the moment. In the event that the buyers continue with this tempo, we feel that there’s a good chance price may attack the 10048 level once more.

Daily Timeframe: Yesterday saw the DAX witness a further increase in value, consequently closing for the day just above a major daily swap level visible at 9790, and as a result likely clearing the path north for prices to test a minor daily swap level seen at 9896. This level now remains a key obstacle to a move towards the daily resistance zone seen above at 10048-10007.

4hr Timeframe: Like the daily timeframe, the 4hr timeframe shows much the same thing, only in more detail. Price positively closed above 9790 (daily swap level) and now has to contend with potential selling opposition from a messy area of supply (green circle), which is effectively the same area as the aforementioned minor daily swap level.

The spike seen marked with a blue arrow at 9872 informs us that supply could indeed be weak here which adds extra weight to a potential move north.

With all of the above taken into consideration, we’d be comfortable buying with lower-timeframe confirmation around the 9800 mark just above 9790, targeting the 4hr resistance level above at 10038 (seen within the aforementioned daily resistance zone). Of course, this is all NFP result dependent. A break below 9790 on the other hand would effectively remove the metaphorical floor from below the DAX and likely see price plummet down towards a trendline support level (8351 – 16/10/14).

Current buy/sell levels:

• Buy orders: 9800 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).
• Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

DOW 30:

Weekly Timeframe: Buying interest is currently being seen on the weekly chart from 17248, which as you can see just missed the ignored weekly Quasimodo level coming in at 17135. It will be interesting to see what the lower timeframes have to say about this.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that the DOW saw another round of fresh buying yesterday, which forced anyone attempting to sell around the daily swap area coming in at 17767-17717 to cover their positions. This move has likely opened the gates for the buyers to challenge a small daily resistance level at 17988. And assuming a bearish reaction is seen here, this could indeed form the right shoulder to a bearish ‘head and shoulders’ pattern.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe on the other hand shows that in order for further buying to be seen, selling opposition must be consumed from a 4hr supply area coming in at 17944-17885. Ultimately, the ideal scenario would be for price to spike above here without hitting 17988. This would inform us that the sellers are likely consumed here and that the path north is potentially free. This will likely trigger buy stops which could tempt pro money to sell into the market towards a 4hr decision-point demand area seen at 17675-17719. This area of demand holds weight in our opinion; it was likely here where pro money made the decision to initially break above the aforementioned daily swap area. Entering long here (assuming we see a spike above the 4hr supply that is) with a pending buy order around 17727, and targeting 17988 promotes a fantastic risk/reward buying opportunity (as per the blue arrows).

Current buy/sell levels:

• Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
• Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

XAU/USD (Gold):

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that Gold has been moderately bullish since hitting the weekly decision-point demand level seen at 1136.3 on 03/11/14. Nonetheless, signs of weakness over the past four weeks or so have begun to show just below a weekly supply area coming in at 1255.2-1226.1.

Daily Timeframe: The rebound seen from the daily Quasimodo resistance level at 1221.1 on Tuesday has recently extended lower. Assuming that the sellers continue with this enthusiasm, a move south will likely follow down to a minor daily S/R swap level seen at 1200.00 and possibly given enough time, a major daily swap level coming in at 1182.0. Let’s see what the 4hr timeframe has to say about this.

4hr Timeframe: Both the weekly and daily timeframes are indicating buying weakness at the moment. However, the 4hr timeframe is telling a completely different story in our view. Take a look and see what you think.

After price broke out of a 4hr range (1211.3/1172.8) on the 06/01/15, it effectively cleared the path north towards a 4hr supply area coming in at 1244.5-1240.1 (located deep within the aforementioned weekly supply). The reason why we believe price can trade thus high is simply because we see very little active supply between 1212.1 and the 4hr supply area (green arc pattern). And also, more recently, further supply consumption is being seen (shown with a black downtrend line) into a small 4hr decision-point demand area at 1201.5-1204.7. This area is relatively significant to us, since it was here where pro money likely made the decision to close prices above the aforementioned 4hr range.

This also shows that if the NFP numbers are positive, there will be very little to stop price rallying all the way up to the aforementioned 4hr supply area. What this also highlights as well is that shorting the daily Quasimodo resistance level (see above) may not be the best path to take at the moment, since it would not take a lot of buyers in scheme of things to push prices higher into this consumed supply. And when there are fewer sellers than buyers – price goes up!

Since it is NFP day today, we intend to wait for the numbers to be released first, and then (if positive of course) begin looking for confirmed long setups around the current 4hr decision-point demand area mentioned above at 1201.5-1204.7.

Current buy/sell levels:

• Buy orders: Post NFP, we’ll be watching for lower-timeframe confirmed entries around 1201.5-1204.7 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1200.6).
• Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

The post Friday 9th January: The NFP decision could cause wild swings and any invalidate technical setups seen today – trade cautiously. appeared first on .

Source:: Friday 9th January: The NFP decision could cause wild swings and any invalidate technical setups seen today – trade cautiously.