Markets Look To New Month

The currency markets open to the new trading month of July. The major themes driving the currencies this morning include the weekend G20 summit.

Investors were waiting for a major breakthrough in the US-China trade talks. However, both parties agreed to continue with trade talks without announcing any major deals. The markets still remain hopeful that the two sides will reach an agreement.

Eurozone Inflation Rises in June

The flash estimates on the inflation data for the eurozone showed some optimism. Headline inflation increased 1.2% on the year ending June 2019. This was in line with market expectations. The core inflation rate also rose by 1.1% on the year in June, beating estimates of a 1.0% increase. The inflation data comes a few weeks ahead of the ECB meeting.

Euro Settles Flat Below $1.1400

The common currency held flat for a third consecutive day. This comes as price briefly tested the 1.1400 level before giving up the gains. We expect the currency pair to remain muted in the near term. The longer-term range of 1.1400 and 1.1200 remains in play. A breakout from this level will potentially confirm the upside bias in price.

WTI Crude Oil Dips Ahead of OPEC Meeting

Crude oil prices gave up some of the gains by Friday’s close. This comes ahead of the two-day OPEC meeting that starts today in Vienna, Austria. Some news reports indicate that OPEC will continue with its existing production cuts. Both Venezuela and Iran are currently cut off from the international oil markets due to the US-led sanctions. This raises concerns of a potential shortfall in OPEC production.

Will Crude Oil Correct Lower?

The current declines in crude oil remain somewhat muted compared to the price action over the past week. Still, the technical outlook remains somewhat bearish in the short term. If oil prices break down below the 57.50 level where support is likely to be formed, further declines could come. Alternately, to the upside, a continuation will see oil prices rising to test the $60 handle.

Gold Closes May with Solid Gains

The precious metal posted solid gains in May, rising over 7.8% on the month. Gold was the second best commodity, next to crude oil. The gains in gold, however, saw prices turning flat near the highs. For two consecutive days, gold prices have closed flat despite being a bit volatile.

Will Gold Continue to Extend Declines?

Friday’s price action indicates that there is scope for gold prices to post a decline. This was evident from the lower opening this morning. The minor support is at the 1404 level. If this level gives way, then gold could potentially post declines much lower. The next main support is seen at 1354 which could be tested in the near term. Alternately, if gold continues to consolidate near the current levels, we expect to see flat price action for the short term.