Tight ranges ahead of risk of Greek referendum

• USD/JPY, other pairs steady to soggy, environment not conducive to risk.
• US holiday, Greek referendum Sunday keep most sidelined.
• USD/JPY dips, 123.10 to 122.81, long liquidation, @123.00 bids filled.
• Bounce later to 123.14 but no aggression, offers from around 123.50.
• EUR/JPY soggy, 136.59 to 136.23 then bounce, GBP/JPY 191.74-192.17 to-fro.
• AUD/JPY off, 94.00 to 93.09, China/weak retail sales, NZD/JPY 82.35-81.

• EUR on hold ahead of Greek referendum on bail-out, EZ participation.
• Market leaning towards “yes” but odds still 50-50, EUR/USD 1.1082-99.
• Some nearby EUR/USD option expiries – 1.1100 E479 mln, 1.3 bln+ to 1.1000.
• EUR/JPY 136.23-59, EUR/GBP 0.7100-04, EUR/CHF 1.0456-64.
• Risk down on Greece, ECB surprise move to include corporate bonds in QE.
• Fed Sept hike expectations off touch post-weak NFP but still possible.

• Cable see-saws between 1.5604-24 in Asia, quiet, flows few.
• Key support below at 1.5550 flat Ichimoku kijun line.

• USD/CHF on hold, 0.9425-36 in Asia, 0.9500+ move yesterday rejected.
• 100-DMA at 0.9502, to help cap market, 200-DMA just above at 0.9529.

• AUD/USD opens Asia at 0.7634, traded down from 0.7649 to 0.7566.
• Some short-covering pre-retail sales, off hard after from high.
• Bids return around 0.7600 but fresh sales post-China services PMI.
• Another plunge in the Shanghai Composite keeps downward pressure on.
• SSEC still down large but bounce from low leads to AUD bounce from its low.

• NZD/USD closed in New York at 0.6720, lowest in five years, intra-day low 0.6664.
• +/-10 pip sideways drift early, heavy later in sympathy with AUD.
• NZD/USD 0.6731 to 0.6705, bids pre-0.6700, supportive.
• AUD/NZD decline from 1.1362 to 1.1274 also supportive.
• Market targeting mid-0.65 area short-term on RBNZ OCR cut expectations.

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