Trading Outlook – Market Update

Trade Recommendation for current Session

There is no stand out trade at this early stage of today’s session with the pairs trading in relatively tight ranges overnight as the market anticipates pivotal news releases later in today’s session.

Today on the calendar we have the ECB rate decision which will be followed by a press conference . We know that the ECB aren’t going to adjust rates as there is little capacity to adjust rates and the ECB have stated that they will not adjust rates further for the foreseeable future.

The markets focal point is whether the ECB will introduce further stimulus measures i.e. quantitative easing, we know that the ECB are already running an ABS program but the market remains unconvinced that this is enough to get the economy going. If the ECB do announce QE we can expect the Euro to sell off massively, I would expect the currency to fall down to 1.20 against the Dollar, if they don’t we could potentially see a relief rally to 1.25.

Pre Session events

Overnight we had some better than expected AUD data, however this doesn’t change our overall fundamentally bearish view on AUD/USD, as the US are getting closer to raising interest rates along with Australia keeping everything on hold for now.

Also we had Bank of Canada’s Poloz state there is plenty of capacity in the economy and a lot of room for it to grow, also saying that the lower oil prices will push inflation lower in the near term.

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