Tesla to the moon?
When talking about stocks that might move in the near future, it’s important to remember that doesn’t always mean upwards.
Some of the interest in Tesla has shifted towards crypto, with CEO Musk making it a theme on his Twitter feed. Even large Tesla backers, like ARK Investments, have spent more on buying up crypto stocks, such as a major investment in Binance.
But, Tesla is still making cars. Yesterday, it came out that Michael Burry, of the “Big Short”, famed for predicting the crash of the subprime loans market, disclosed that he had taken major short positions in Tesla.
What’s the thinking?
Is he right? Tesla is down 34% since its peak on Jan 26.
As we mentioned previously, the consensus is that the drive up in Tesla stock was primarily thanks to low interest rates. With inflation moving higher, the risk of the Fed tapering and increasing rates comes up, and there might be less margin room.
The bottom line is that most of the heavy hitters who have been supporting Tesla’s price action are betting on a future of driverless cars. Which might happen, but maybe not as fast as some of the more enthusiastic Tesla buyers expect.
Technically, a correction is less than 20% of price action. But, after running up 800% in less than a year, maybe a bigger dip isn’t all that unexpected.
Lufthansa to fly again
Jumping across the pond to find something more positive, Germany’s health minister said that vaccines will be available to all adults starting on June 7. That is expected to pull forward the time when Germany, at least, can start putting the pandemic behind them.
As the largest aviation market in Europe, Lufthansa is expected to be one of the larger beneficiaries.
In fact, yesterday the CEO of the budget unit of the airline, Eurowings, said that bookings had doubled in the last month. This was in the context of expanding the reach of the unit over the coming months.
Cheap is good
Ryanair reported on Monday, also giving some positive outlook on the market. This suggests that budget airlines are likely to recover faster than mainline flag carriers.
On the other hand, they have less access to capital. The combination of a capitalized mainline airline with a broad budget footprint could be the key to success for airline recovery.
That said, Lufthansa is looking to do another 3B euro capital raise in June. This has contributed to keeping the stock price lower in the last few months.
Although it has appreciated over 40% since the pandemic lows, it is still 70% short of its pre-pandemic level.
Lufthansa still sees returning to profit sometime in 2022. They are confident enough to have recently put in orders for new aircraft, taking advantage of the low credit costs to cycle in more efficient airframes.