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US NFP – Forex Trading News Event of the Week
US NFP (Non Farm Payroll) – Friday the 8th of May 1:30pm
This week I am travelling so I have prepared the upcoming risk events report in written form instead of the usual video format. We have several huge events on the calendar and this report will prepare you fully for the biggest highlight of the week.
Friday the 8th will once again open with a major event from Australia. This time it is the monetary policy report which will give us the RBA’s view on the economy and their expected projections for the economy (after factoring any new cuts). The question we will be looking to answer is this: Do the RBA feel that they have now done enough or is there scope for further measures in the coming months?
Then the big highlight of the entire week is the US NFP figure. It will be huge in determining the markets expectations for a Fed hike in the coming months. They are currently expecting the bank to hike in December 2015. In our view this is a little extreme (we expect a hike before September). BUT this will hugely depend on the data over the next 6 weeks, starting with US NFP. If the figure resumes its +200k trend then market nerves could be eased and the USD could become well supported again. However if we have another sub 150k reading then the anticipated reaction would be more USD weakness over the coming weeks. The fact that US NFP can literally cause opposite scenarios depending on the reading really does make this a highly risky event. Therefore, we will not be trading into it. Furthermore, the next few weeks as a whole could be very volatile. The markets (along with us) will be looking for trends in the data to either support or reject the current thinking that the Fed will leave it as late as December to make their first move.
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