US NFP, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings

Posted On 04 Sep 2015

US NFP, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings data will be released later this afternoon (1:30pm BST). Watch my weekly Forex news event’s overview here or read my full analysis in order to learn about interpreting these particular data points.

Non-Farm Employment:
Prior: 215K
Expected: 217K
Low: 170K
High: 265K

Unemployment Rate:
Prior: 5.3%
Expected: 5.2%
Low: 5.1%
High: 5.4%

Average Hourly Earnings:
Prior: 0.2%
Expected: 0.2%
Low: 0.1%
High: 0.4%

Description:
The US NFP (Non-Farm Employment) report is the most market moving number to be released from the US and shows the change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is a leading indicator of consumer spending which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. Then finally the Average Hourly Earnings measures the change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming industry, which is a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

Summary:
The US Dollar is currently bullish with one of the strongest influences behind the strength being investors anticipation of a coming rate hike from the FED in 2015. The employment situation has not been strong but has been strong enough to keep up expectations for a rate hike later this year. The report for August is expected to show an small uptick with nonfarm payrolls expected to rise 217,000 vs 215,000 in July. The unemployment rate is expected to tick 1 tenth lower to an ever tighter 5.2% while average hourly earnings are expected to remain tame, at plus 0.2%.

Expected Market Reaction:
This is the most marketing moving data to be released from the US and with the pending rate hike fresh in traders minds, along with the FED’s current data dependent stance, we don’t expect it to disappoint in terms of volatility. A positive number will likely see a good deal of USD strength by bringing back the possibility of a September hike, while a negative number will likely pressure the USD and cement the fate of a September liftoff.

The post US NFP, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings appeared first on Jarratt Davis.

Source:: US NFP, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings

About the Author

Jarratt Davis is the world’s ranked #2 (2008-2013) Forex Trader by Barclays FX Hedge Index, following years of mastering his art as a self employed trader Jarratt has now entered the field of education and delivers the most robust Forex education package on the market. Jarratt’s mentorship is one of the only programs on the market that is conducted by a verified professional trader. Forex Alchemy readers can get the FREE mini course where Jarratt gives away some of his secrets to success by Clicking Here... [space height="20"] [social type="facebook"]www.facebook.com/JarrattDavisForex/[/social] [social type="twitter"]https://twitter.com/jarrattdavis[/social] [social type="google-plus"]https://plus.google.com/+JarrattdavisForexTrader/[/social] [social type="youtube"]https://www.youtube.com/user/JarrattDavisForex[/social]