US Session Bullet Report – The biggest day of the year is here

The D-day is here and the long awaited FOMC decision will take place tonight at 18:00 GMT followed by Janet Yellen’s Press Conference half an hour later. While US economic data might justify a rate hike (it will be the first one after June 2008) market consensus stands at 60% of not hiking rates tonight. Emerging Market volatility (mainly China) and low inflation due to such low oil and metal prices are arguing against hiking rates, while unemployment of 5.1% and a GDP of 3.7% are reasons to hike.

Hike or no hike, what traders will focus on is what Ms. Yellen will actually say. Chances are between a small rate hike, but reassuring the markets that any further hikes will be gradual, and a no hike but a hawkish stance that will leave the window open for taking action in October or December.

The Fed needs to keep its credibility intact, especially with Ms. Yellen being so vocal on a hike in 2015. If the FED leaves it too late, there is a danger of having to play catch up, and this could only cause more problems, especially to consumer spending and business confidence at a later date.

There is a lot of uncertainty as to what the communication after the hike will be or for the hike itself. For the markets, this is way too much information to absorb in a short period of time and in our view, it will probably be the most volatile day of the year (Excluding January 15th where the SNB removed the peg of the CHF against the EUR).

As for easy-forex, there is no way any other company will be able to match our trading conditions on such a volatile day. We are the only company with fixed spread, no slippage and guaranteed stops, and we tend to keep it that way at times of volatility because that is when our traders need it the most. Trade safe, and get ready for a wild ride.

Trading quote of the day:

“A lot of people get so enmeshed in the markets that they lose their perspective. Working longer does not necessarily equate with working smarter. In fact, sometimes is the other way around.”

– Martin Schwartz, in Pit Bull

EURUSD
Pivot: 1.127
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.127 with targets @ 1.137 & 1.1395 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.127 look for further downside with 1.121 & 1.118 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.

GBPUSD
Pivot: 1.545
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.545 with targets @ 1.5555 & 1.56 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.545 look for further downside with 1.541 & 1.533 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.

AUDUSD
Pivot: 0.712
Likely scenario: Long positions above 0.712 with targets @ 0.7205 & 0.7225 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.712 look for further downside with 0.7085 & 0.704 as targets.
Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

USDJPY
Pivot: 120.3
Likely scenario: Long positions above 120.3 with targets @ 121.25 & 121.45 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 120.3 look for further downside with 120.1 & 119.75 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.

USDCAD
Pivot: 1.322
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.322 with targets @ 1.316 & 1.313 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.322 look for further upside with 1.325 & 1.327 as targets.
Comment: As long as 1.322 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

USDCHF
Pivot: 0.972
Likely scenario: Short positions below 0.972 with targets @ 0.966 & 0.964 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.972 look for further upside with 0.9765 & 0.9795 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is bearish and calls for further decline.

GOLD
Pivot: 1115
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1115 with targets @ 1124 & 1127 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1115 look for further downside with 1112 & 1107 as targets.
Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

OIL
Pivot: 47.6
Likely scenario: Short positions below 47.6 with targets @ 45.9 & 45.1 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 47.6 look for further upside with 48.4 & 48.8 as targets.
Comment: The RSI broke below a rising trend line.

DAX
Pivot: 10170
Likely scenario: Long positions above 10170 with targets @ 10340 & 10435 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 10170 look for further downside with 10065 & 9950 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50%.

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TIME IS IN GMT(+3)

Report prepared by the easy-forex VIP desk at 06:20 GMT.

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