Crude Oil Prices Move Lower on Strong Inventory Build

Crude oil prices moved lower on Wednesday but held firm Friday, following the Department of Energy’s release of a larger than expected build in crude oil inventories. Despite solid US demand, prices continue to face headwinds, as producers continue to generate robust volumes of US crude oils.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 7.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 387.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are well above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 4.1 million barrels last week, and are well above the upper limit of the average range.

The Bakken Shale, primarily in North Dakota, has provided a significant share of the total increase in U.S. oil production over the past three years. North Dakota, now the second-largest oil producing state, provides nearly one out of every eight barrels of oil produced in the United States. Between 60% and 70% of the more than 1 million barrels per day of oil produced in the state has been transported to refineries by rail each month in the first half of 2014, according to the North Dakota Pipeline Authority.

Crude oil prices are forming a bear flag patterns near the bottom end of the current range, which is a continuation pattern that usually leads to further losses. Resistance on West Texas Intermediate crude oil is seen near 58.80, while support is seen near the recent lows at 53.80. Momentum has turned positive despite the fundamental headwinds as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a buy signal. This occurs as the spread (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the 9-day moving average of the spread. The index moved from negative to positive territory confirming the buy signal.

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