Friday 3rd April: European banks closed today – NFP release just around the corner.

EUR/USD:

Weekly timeframe perspective: (Revised from the previous report) Following the rebound from the weekly demand area at 1.0333-1.0502 two weeks ago, price action appears to be stalling just below a major weekly swap level coming in at 1.1096. A convincing push above this barrier may set the stage for a continuation move north towards weekly supply coming in at 1.1449-1.1278.

Daily timeframe perspective: (Revised from the previous report) From this timeframe, we can see that the daily swap level at 1.0716 is clearly supporting price at the moment.

4hr timeframe perspective: Yesterday’s sessions saw the Euro rocket north. This rally took out the 1.0800 handle, retested it as support, and jumped up to 1.0900, which, as you can see, is currently holding the market lower.

With all of the above taken into consideration, shorting the 1.0900 number may not be the best path to take, since let’s not forget that price is only STALLING below the weekly swap level (see the red line), it has not actually hit it yet. On top of that, we have recently been seeing buying interest on the daily timeframe from the aforementioned daily swap level. Therefore, we’d much prefer to wait to see if price can close above 1.0900 today and retest it as support, since this move would likely give us a clear profit run up to at least a 4hr resistance zone coming in at 1.1050-1.1011 (located just below the aforementioned weekly swap level).

Guys, please be aware that today’s trading could be affected by NFP data due to be released at 1.30 pm GMT time, let’s also not forget that Europe is on vacation today in observance of Good Friday, so please bear this in mind if you’re considering a trade.

Current buy/sell orders:

• Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
• Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

GBP/USD:

Weekly timeframe perspective: From this angle, we can see that the sellers are managing to hold the market below a recently broken weekly Quasimodo support (now resistance) level at 1.5007. In the event that further downside is seen from here, we could eventually see price drop as far as the major weekly demand area coming in at 1.4225-1.4482.

Daily timeframe perspective: The daily timeframe on the other hand, shows that in order for further selling to be seen on the weekly timeframe, the sellers must take out a daily demand area positioned at 1.4643-1.4823.

4hr timeframe perspective: From a technical standpoint, Cable remains relatively unchanged. Buying and selling is still capped between the 1.4866 level and the 4hr demand area coming in at 1.4721-1.4767 (located within the aforementioned daily demand area).

In light of what we’re seeing on the higher timeframes at the moment (see above in bold), our team remains hesitant trading this pair medium/long term.

However, we are still very keen on trading this pair intraday, levels we have our eye on are as follows:

Buys:

• 4hr demand at 1.4721-1.4767.
• 4hr Quasimodo support level seen at 1.4698.

Sells:

• Minor 4hr Quasimodo resistance at 1.4866.
• Fresh 4hr supply seen at 1.4919-1.4896.

In trading the above levels, we highly recommend waiting for the lower timeframe structure to confirm buying or selling strength around your chosen zone.

Current buy/sell orders:

• Buy orders: 1.4721-1.4767 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders are seen at: 1.4714) 1.4698 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders are seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).
• Sell orders: 1.4866 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders are seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level) 1.4919-1.4896 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders are seen at: 1.4925).

AUD/USD:

Weekly timeframe perspective: The weekly timeframe shows that price is currently being forced deeper into a major weekly demand area coming in at 0.7449-0.7678 – not really a good sign for anyone currently long this market at the moment! This, however, should not really come as much of a surprise since the overall trend is still very much southbound.

Daily timeframe perspective: From the daily picture, we can see price is wrestling with a daily demand area at 0.7449-0.7598 (located deep within the aforementioned weekly demand area).

4hr timeframe perspective: Yesterday’s sessions saw price break below a small 4hr Quasimodo/round-number area at 0.7587/0.7600, and slam into mid-level number support at 0.7550, which, as you can see, was clearly enough to support a counterattack back up to retest this Quasimodo line.

Providing that the sellers can hold the market below this level today, we’ll likely see price attack 0.7550 once again. For those considering selling here, please bear in mind that by doing so, you’d effectively be selling into higher-timeframe demand (see above), but at the same time, trading with the overall trend.

Conversely, should price convincingly close above the Quasimodo/round-number area today, this will, in effect, be our cue to begin watching for price to retest this area as support, since the path north will then, as far as we can see, be clear for intraday buying up to the 4hr decision-point supply area seen at 0.7663-0.7639. Any buy trades taken from here will require confirmation from the lower timeframes, as we would essentially be trading against the tide.

Current buy/sell orders:

• Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
• Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

USD/JPY:

Weekly timeframe perspective: From the weekly timeframe, we can clearly see that the buyers and sellers are battling for position within a small weekly decision-point demand area coming in at 118.22-119.40. Assuming that the buyers are victorious here, it is likely we’ll see price attack the weekly Quasimodo resistance level seen at 122.18.

Daily timeframe perspective: Following the move seen from daily support at 118.32 on the 26/03/15 (located deep within the aforementioned small weekly decision-point demand area), resistance appears to be forming around the 120.11 region. It will be interesting to see what the 4hr timeframe makes of this…

4hr timeframe perspective: Yesterday’s trading sessions saw buying interest come into the market from a 4hr Quasimodo support level at 119.42, which, as you can probably see, is currently being challenged by active sellers around the 119.81 region.

Given that the buyers are still holding price within a weekly decision-point demand area (see above) at the moment, our team is quite confident that higher prices will eventually be seen on this pair. That said, our main focus for today, like yesterday, will be on the aforementioned 4hr Quasimodo support level. Buying from this level will only be permitted if we see lower timeframe confirmation, since a fake below this barrier down to the 4hr demand area at 118.91-119.13 could well be seen.

This area of 4hr demand is particularly interesting to us for the following reasons:

1. Fantastic momentum north seen from the base.
2. Relatively fresh.
3. Round-number support at 119.00 seen within.

Usually we would consider a pending buy order here, but with the NFP due later on, and today being Good Friday, liquidity could become erratic, so lower timeframe confirmation will also be needed to enter at this zone also.

Current buy/sell orders:

• Buy orders: 119.42 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level) 118.91-119.13 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 118.87).
• Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

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