Trading Outlook – AUD/USD

Posted On 27 Mar 2015

By : Jarratt Davis

Comment: 0

Tag: AUDUSD, Money Markets

Originally updated: 07:30

Trading Bias: SHORT

Currency pair: AUD/USD

Current Sentiment: Bearish

In today’s trading session we will be focussing on selling opportunities on AUD/USD.

Fundamentals:

Markets were relatively quiet overnight although AUD underperformed following a sell-off across the commodities complex, also the recent RBA Financial Stability Review has caused the markets to tweak expectations of a rate cut to a 61% probability at the April 7th meeting vs 49% before the release.

For this trade we ideally want to see a positive reading of US GDP later on today, if we get a positive reading above 2.4% then we could look at shorting AUD/USD for the rest of the New York trading session.

Technicals:

We expect this pair to fall lower during today’s session.

There is strong resistance at 0.7900 should it rally that far, failing that 0.7850 is noted as medium term level of resistance which could provide trading opportunities should the price pull back. Look for the price to bounce off this level if it retraces back to it.

Remember to be aware of intra-day news as this can very often change the sentiment which makes our trade weaker. Look for any news that could negative for the USD which would change the sentiment on this pair

Other Market Moving News:

Looking ahead on today’s calendar we have US GDP, which could give us a good reason to go long USD (short AUD/USD) if we get a positive reading.

News overnight news is relatively limited with the only story of note being comments from Saudi army official Asseri, who said that Saudi Arabia has no imminent intention to send troops into Yemen.

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