US Preliminary GDP (24th of November 1:30pm) release usually has less of an impact than the Advanced print, however if the first estimate is indeed revised upwards, as economists’ consensus predict, the USD could certainly benefit.
Conversely, if GDP fails to reach 2% then we may see some short-term weakness in the USD as some market participants take profit on the USD gains from Friday and Monday. As usual, the degree of market impact will depend upon the size of any deviation.
Gross Domestic Product shows the annualized change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It’s the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health. Preliminary GDP is the second estimate of three GDP readings from the US. There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart – Advanced, Preliminary, and Final.
With the Fed eager to raise rates in December the market will be very interested to gauge economic activity for the third quarter. Final GDP for the second quarter was 3.9%, but then the Advance reading for Q3 showed annualised growth of only 1.5%, below expectations. This second estimate release for Q3 is expected to be higher than the first estimate, at 2.1%. Annualised growth above 2% will keep the Fed relatively content about raising rates in December. However their key concern is inflation, not growth.
P.S. This release was also covered in the weekly risk events video. You can watch it here.
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Source:: US Preliminary GDP | Impact on USD