US Session Bullet Report – USD in a range, Mario Draghi next

The USD still continues to dominate today albeit with a weaker tone. Initially USD was supported by another round of weak Chinese data, however later comments leaking from 2 ECB members where they stated that they will likely not proceed with more QE, helped support the EUR towards 1.1170 from 1.1100. More on this will likely be revealed by ECB President Mario Draghi who is scheduled to speak later at 13:00 GMT. Investors will be looking for clues into whether the ECB is contemplating expanding its bond-buying program.

Outlook on the GBPUSD on the other hand looks bleak especially after breaking 1.53 and trading as low as 1.5265. 1.5160 levels reached in September are now the next support targets.

Stocks are in a recovery mode in EU today following the Asian selloff as the dust over the VW scandal has temporarily settled down. The only other highlight of the afternoon besides Draghi, will be the USD release of Manufacturing PMI, however impact should be limited.

Trading quote of the day:

“What seems too high and risky to the majority generally goes higher and what seems low and cheap generally goes lower.”

-William O’Neil

EURUSD
Pivot: 1.118
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.118 with targets @ 1.1105 & 1.102 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.118 look for further upside with 1.1255 & 1.132 as targets.
Comment: As long as the resistance at 1.118 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 1.1105 remains high.

GBPUSD
Pivot: 1.54
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.54 with targets @ 1.524 & 1.52 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.54 look for further upside with 1.546 & 1.553 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is badly directed.

AUDUSD
Pivot: 0.709
Likely scenario: Short positions below 0.709 with targets @ 0.701 & 0.6985 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.709 look for further upside with 0.7115 & 0.716 as targets.
Comment: The RSI lacks upward momentum.

USDJPY
Pivot: 120.3
Likely scenario: Short positions below 120.3 with targets @ 119.6 & 119.35 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 120.3 look for further upside with 120.65 & 121 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed and calls for caution.

USDCAD
Pivot: 1.321
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.321 with targets @ 1.331 & 1.335 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.321 look for further downside with 1.317 & 1.311 as targets.
Comment: The RSI lacks downward momentum.

USDCHF
Pivot: 0.9705
Likely scenario: Long positions above 0.9705 with targets @ 0.979 & 0.9825 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.9705 look for further downside with 0.9675 & 0.964 as targets.
Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

GOLD
Pivot: 1136
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1136 with targets @ 1121 & 1116 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1136 look for further upside with 1142 & 1148 as targets.
Comment: Even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

OIL
Pivot: 46.1
Likely scenario: Long positions above 46.1 with targets @ 47.34 & 47.75 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 46.1 look for further downside with 45.37 & 45 as targets.
Comment: Crude Oil broke above a declining trend line, which emerged on Sept 17.

DAX
Pivot: 9780
Likely scenario: Short positions below 9780 with targets @ 9320 & 9235 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 9780 look for further upside with 10020 & 10175 as targets.
Comment: As long as the resistance at 9780 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 9320 remains high.

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TIME IS IN GMT(+3)

Report prepared by the easy-forex VIP desk at 06:20 GMT.

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