Monday 13th April: European Open Briefing

Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 0.10 %, Shanghai Composite gained 1.50 %, Hang Seng rose 0.75 %, ASX is 0.05 % higher
  • Commodities: Gold at $1204 (-0.05 %), Silver at $16.38 (-0.05 %), WTI Oil at $51.77 (+0.25 %), Brent Oil at $59.00 (+0.05 %)
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 1.94, UK 10 year yield at 1.589, German 10 year yield at 0.16

News & Data:

  • China Trade Balance $3.08bln, Expected: $45.35bln, Previous: $60.60bln
  • China Exports -15.0 %, Expected: 12.0 %, Previous: 48.3 %
  • China Imports -12.7 %, Expected: -11.7 %, Previous: 20.5 %
  • Japan Core Machinery Orders -0.4 % m/m, Expected: -2.8 %, Previous: -1.7 %
  • Japan Core Machinery Orders 5.9 % y/y, Expected: 3.7 %, Previous: 1.9 %
  • Japan CGPI 0.3 % m/m, Expected: -0.1 %, Previous: 0.0 %
  • Japan CGPI 0.7 % y/y, Expected: 0.4 %, Previous: 0.5 %
  • New Zealand PM Key: RBNZ Property Tools Better Than Rate Rises — Radio NZ
  • Riksbank Governor Ingves: Will Be Years Before “Normal” Interest Rates — Finanzen
  • China Imports From Australia Decline for Record Seventh Month

CFTC Positioning Data:

  • EUR shorts 215k vs 227k previously
  • GBP shorts 34k vs 36k previously
  • JPY shorts 24k vs 24k previously
  • AUD shorts 40k vs 24k previously
  • CAD shorts 30k vs 29k previously
  • CHF longs 120 vs 706 previously

Markets Update:

The US Dollar gained across the board in the Asian session, as Chinese trade data pushed the Aussie and Kiwi Dollar almost 100 pips lower. Chinese imports declined 12.7 %, with imports from Australia declining for the 7th month now. AUD/USD fell from 0.7665 to a fresh multi-day low at 0.7585, while NZD/USD dropped from 0.7535 ahead of the data release to 0.7445. There was also position unwinding in last week’s popular carry trades – EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD – and it seems we could see a decent short squeeze in those pairs.

Upcoming Events:

  • 07:45 BST – French Current Account
  • 09:00 BST – Italian Industrial Production (0.5 % m/m, -1.3 % y/y)
  • 19:00 BST – US Federal Budget Balance (-$43bln)

The Week Ahead (Key Data Releases/Events)

Tuesday, April 14th 2015

02:30 BST – Australian NAB Business Confidence

07:00 BST – Swedish Unemployment Rate

07:00 BST – German WPI (0.2 % m/m)

08:00 BST – Spanish CPI (0.6 % m/m, -0.7 y/y)

08:00 BST – Spanish HICP (2.1 % m/m, -0.7 y/y)

08:30 BST – Swedish CPI (0.2 % m/m, 0.3 % y/y)

09:00 BST – Italian CPI (0.1 % m/m, -0.1 % y/y)

09:30 BST – UK CPI (0.2 % m/m, 0.0 % y/y)

09:30 BST – UK Core CPI (1.2 % y/y)

10:00 BST – Euro Zone Industrial Production (0.3 % m/m, 0.7 % y/y)

13:00 BST – FOMC Member Kocherlakota speaks

13:30 BST – US Core PPI (0.1 % m/m, 0.9 % y/y)

13:30 BST – US PPI (0.2 % m/m, -0.7 % y/y)

13:30 BST – US Retail Sales (1.0 % m/m)

15:00 BST – US Business Inventories (0.2 % m/m)

Wednesday, April 15th 2015

03:00 BST – Chinese GDP (1.4 % q/q, 7.0 % y/y)

03:00 BST – Chinese Industrial Production (6.9 % y/y)

03:00 BST – Chinese Retail Sales (10.9 % y/y)

07:00 BST – German CPI (0.5 % m/m, 0.3 % y/y)

07:00 BST – German HICP (0.5 % m/m, 0.1 % y/y)

07:15 BST – Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda speaks

07:45 BST – French CPI (0.7 % m/m)

07:45 BST – French HICP (0.7 % m/m, 0.0 % y/y)

10:00 BST – Euro Zone Trade Balance

12:45 BST – ECB Interest Rate Decision (0.05 %)

13:30 BST – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (7.30)

13:30 BST – Canadian Manufacturing Sales (-0.2 % m/m)

13:30 BST – ECB Press Conference

14:00 BST – FOMC Member Bullard speaks

14:15 BST – US Industrial Production (-0.3 % m/m)

14:15 BST – US Manufacturing Production (0.1 % m/m)

15:00 BST – US NAHB Housing Market Index (55.0)

15:00 BST – Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision (0.75 %)

15:00 BST – Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report

16:15 BST – Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks

Thursday, April 16th 2015

02:30 BST – Australian Employment Change (15k)

02:30 BST – Australian Unemployment Rate (6.3 %)

08:15 BST – Swiss PPI (0.1 % m/m)

09:00 BST – Italian Trade Balance (€1.21bln)

13:30 BST – US Building Permits (1.08mln)

13:30 BST – US Housing Starts (1.04mln)

13:30 BST – US Initial Jobless Claims

15:00 BST – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (6.3)

Friday, April 17th 2015

08:15 BST – Swiss Retail Sales

09:00 BST – Euro Zone Current Account

09:30 BST – UK Claimant Count Change (-28k)

09:30 BST – UK Unemployment Rate (5.6 %)

09:30 BST – UK Average Earnings (1.8 %)

10:00 BST – Euro Zone CPI (1.1 % m/m, -0.1 % y/y)

10:00 BST – Euro Zone Core CPI

13:30 BST – US CPI (0.2 % m/m, 0.1 % y/y)

13:30 BST – US Core CPI (0.2 % m/m, 1.7 % y/y)

13:30 BST – Canadian CPI (1.0 % m/m, 1.0 % y/y)

13:30 BST – Canadian Core CPI (2.0 % y/y)

13:30 BST – Canadian Retail Sales (1.0 % m/m)

15:00 BST – US Michigan Consumer Expectations (87)

15:00 BST – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (94)

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