Monday 13th April: European Open Briefing

Posted On 13 Apr 2015

By : IC Markets

Comment: 0

Tag: AUDUSD, Chinese GDP, EURAUD, European Session, Eurozone CPI, GBPNZD, NZDUSD, UK CPI

Global Markets:

Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 0.10 %, Shanghai Composite gained 1.50 %, Hang Seng rose 0.75 %, ASX is 0.05 % higher
Commodities: Gold at $1204 (-0.05 %), Silver at $16.38 (-0.05 %), WTI Oil at $51.77 (+0.25 %), Brent Oil at $59.00 (+0.05 %)
Rates: US 10 year yield at 1.94, UK 10 year yield at 1.589, German 10 year yield at 0.16

News & Data:

China Trade Balance $3.08bln, Expected: $45.35bln, Previous: $60.60bln
China Exports -15.0 %, Expected: 12.0 %, Previous: 48.3 %
China Imports -12.7 %, Expected: -11.7 %, Previous: 20.5 %
Japan Core Machinery Orders -0.4 % m/m, Expected: -2.8 %, Previous: -1.7 %
Japan Core Machinery Orders 5.9 % y/y, Expected: 3.7 %, Previous: 1.9 %
Japan CGPI 0.3 % m/m, Expected: -0.1 %, Previous: 0.0 %
Japan CGPI 0.7 % y/y, Expected: 0.4 %, Previous: 0.5 %
New Zealand PM Key: RBNZ Property Tools Better Than Rate Rises — Radio NZ
Riksbank Governor Ingves: Will Be Years Before “Normal” Interest Rates — Finanzen
China Imports From Australia Decline for Record Seventh Month

CFTC Positioning Data:

EUR shorts 215k vs 227k previously
GBP shorts 34k vs 36k previously
JPY shorts 24k vs 24k previously
AUD shorts 40k vs 24k previously
CAD shorts 30k vs 29k previously
CHF longs 120 vs 706 previously

Markets Update:

The US Dollar gained across the board in the Asian session, as Chinese trade data pushed the Aussie and Kiwi Dollar almost 100 pips lower. Chinese imports declined 12.7 %, with imports from Australia declining for the 7th month now. AUD/USD fell from 0.7665 to a fresh multi-day low at 0.7585, while NZD/USD dropped from 0.7535 ahead of the data release to 0.7445. There was also position unwinding in last week’s popular carry trades – EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD – and it seems we could see a decent short squeeze in those pairs.

Upcoming Events:

07:45 BST – French Current Account
09:00 BST – Italian Industrial Production (0.5 % m/m, -1.3 % y/y)
19:00 BST – US Federal Budget Balance (-$43bln)

The Week Ahead (Key Data Releases/Events)

Tuesday, April 14th 2015

02:30 BST – Australian NAB Business Confidence

07:00 BST – Swedish Unemployment Rate

07:00 BST – German WPI (0.2 % m/m)

08:00 BST – Spanish CPI (0.6 % m/m, -0.7 y/y)

08:00 BST – Spanish HICP (2.1 % m/m, -0.7 y/y)

08:30 BST – Swedish CPI (0.2 % m/m, 0.3 % y/y)

09:00 BST – Italian CPI (0.1 % m/m, -0.1 % y/y)

09:30 BST – UK CPI (0.2 % m/m, 0.0 % y/y)

09:30 BST – UK Core CPI (1.2 % y/y)

10:00 BST – Euro Zone Industrial Production (0.3 % m/m, 0.7 % y/y)

13:00 BST – FOMC Member Kocherlakota speaks

13:30 BST – US Core PPI (0.1 % m/m, 0.9 % y/y)

13:30 BST – US PPI (0.2 % m/m, -0.7 % y/y)

13:30 BST – US Retail Sales (1.0 % m/m)

15:00 BST – US Business Inventories (0.2 % m/m)

Wednesday, April 15th 2015

03:00 BST – Chinese GDP (1.4 % q/q, 7.0 % y/y)

03:00 BST – Chinese Industrial Production (6.9 % y/y)

03:00 BST – Chinese Retail Sales (10.9 % y/y)

07:00 BST – German CPI (0.5 % m/m, 0.3 % y/y)

07:00 BST – German HICP (0.5 % m/m, 0.1 % y/y)

07:15 BST – Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda speaks

07:45 BST – French CPI (0.7 % m/m)

07:45 BST – French HICP (0.7 % m/m, 0.0 % y/y)

10:00 BST – Euro Zone Trade Balance

12:45 BST – ECB Interest Rate Decision (0.05 %)

13:30 BST – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (7.30)

13:30 BST – Canadian Manufacturing Sales (-0.2 % m/m)

13:30 BST – ECB Press Conference

14:00 BST – FOMC Member Bullard speaks

14:15 BST – US Industrial Production (-0.3 % m/m)

14:15 BST – US Manufacturing Production (0.1 % m/m)

15:00 BST – US NAHB Housing Market Index (55.0)

15:00 BST – Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision (0.75 %)

15:00 BST – Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report

16:15 BST – Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks

Thursday, April 16th 2015

02:30 BST – Australian Employment Change (15k)

02:30 BST – Australian Unemployment Rate (6.3 %)

08:15 BST – Swiss PPI (0.1 % m/m)

09:00 BST – Italian Trade Balance (€1.21bln)

13:30 BST – US Building Permits (1.08mln)

13:30 BST – US Housing Starts (1.04mln)

13:30 BST – US Initial Jobless Claims

15:00 BST – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (6.3)

Friday, April 17th 2015

08:15 BST – Swiss Retail Sales

09:00 BST – Euro Zone Current Account

09:30 BST – UK Claimant Count Change (-28k)

09:30 BST – UK Unemployment Rate (5.6 %)

09:30 BST – UK Average Earnings (1.8 %)

10:00 BST – Euro Zone CPI (1.1 % m/m, -0.1 % y/y)

10:00 BST – Euro Zone Core CPI

13:30 BST – US CPI (0.2 % m/m, 0.1 % y/y)

13:30 BST – US Core CPI (0.2 % m/m, 1.7 % y/y)

13:30 BST – Canadian CPI (1.0 % m/m, 1.0 % y/y)

13:30 BST – Canadian Core CPI (2.0 % y/y)

13:30 BST – Canadian Retail Sales (1.0 % m/m)

15:00 BST – US Michigan Consumer Expectations (87)

15:00 BST – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (94)

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