Wednesday 4th June: European Open Briefing.

By IC Markets Trading Desk

Global Markets:

  • Australia (AUD) Gross Domestic Product (Q1) (y/y): 3.5%, Expected: 3.3%, Previous: 2.8%
  • New Zealand (NZD) ANZ Commodity Price (MAY): -2.2%, Previous: -4.0%
  • Australia (AUD) AiG Performance of Services Index (MAY): 49.9, Previous: 48.6
  • United Kingdom (GBP) BRC Shop Price Index (MAY) (m/m): -1.4%, Previous: 1.4%
  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 0.10 %, Shanghai Composite down 1 %, Hang Seng lost 0.60 %, ASX fell 0.50 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1245.90, Silver at $18.80, Crude Oil at $102.82
  • Bonds: US 10 year yield at 2.59

 

FX Update:

  • AUD – Australian GDP beat expectations and AUD/USD reached a high of 0.9295. Offers pre-0.93 proved tough however and the pair has almost retraced all the post-GDP gains. Like in most pairs these days, playing the range seems the most favorable strategy for AUD/USD, buying ahead of the 0.92 barrier and selling into rallies towards 0.93/0.9310. Cross flows were positive, led by AUD/NZD buying. The pair broke above 1.10 and likely to attract further demand from leveraged names on a daily close > 1.10.
  • CAD – USD/CAD shorts are slowly getting squeezed out of their positions as the pair hit a session high of 1.0935 earlier. The rally has stalled ahead of 1.0940/50 offers, but stops in good size are reported above 1.0950. The focus today lies on the Bank of Canada rate decision. The bank is expected to leave rates unchanged at 1.00 %, but traders will pay close attention to the Poloz press conference, which will be held shortly after the rate decision.
  • EUR – EUR/USD saw steady selling from leveraged names during the past two sessions, especially on the rally to 1.3650. The pair will stay offered pre-ECB and any gains should be capped at 1.3650/60. The dip to 1.3585 yesterday attracted good buying and banks see bids rebuilding around that level. Stops seen through 1.3575.
  • JPY – USD/JPY extended gains to 102.78 and dealers are reporting of solid offers from hedge funds above 102.80. To the downside, bids building at 102.45/50 and 102.20.

 

Upcoming Events:

  • 07:15 GMT – Spanish Services PMI (56.1)
  • 07:45 GMT – Italian Services PMI (51.5)
  • 07:50 GMT – French Services PMI (49.2)
  • 07:55 GMT – German Services PMI (56.4)
  • 08:00 GMT – Euro Zone Services PMI (53.5)
  • 08:30 GMT – UK Services PMI (58.2)
  • 09:00 GMT – Euro Zone GDP (0.2 % QoQ, 0.9 % YoY)
  • 12:15 GMT – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (213k)
  • 12:30 GMT – Canadian Trade Balance (-40.5B)
  • 14:00 GMT – Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision (unch, 1.00 %)
  • 14:00 GMT – US Non-Manufacturing PMI (55.5)
  • 18:00 GMT – US Beige Book

 

Source: ICMarkets Analysis

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