Today Trade Plan
- CAD GDP came in -0.5%, must lower than the forecasted estimate of 0.1%. This is inline with the underlying weakness in CAD.
- BoC rate decision later on today. A dovish tone from BoC will see CAD further weakening.
- OPEC source warns prices could fall below $35 per barrel. A fall in oil prices would affect the CAD negatively as well.
- AUD GDP came in 0.9% versus an estimate of 0.3%. The overall outlook in AUD has in the medium term shifted slightly towards the bullish sentiment, at least till early 2016.
AUDCAD is currently retracing after a strong upward move yesterday. Level to monitor is at 0.9745 which confluence with the 38.2 fibonacci level.
EP @ 0.9745
SL @ 0.9700
TP @ Open
EURAUD is currently ranging after price dropped since the start of the week. Immediate minor resistant is at 1.4540 which confluence with the 38.2 fibonacci retracement level.
EP @ 1.4540
SL @ 1.4600
TP @ Open
USDCAD isn’t the most ideal pair, but is still worth monitoring should BoC comes in dovish or even decide to surprise the market by cutting rate. Will look to take profits off this trade before Friday US NFP.
EP @ 1.3355
SL @ 1.3320
TP @ 1.3390
As long as BoC remains dovish, we will look to continue holding AUDCAD till early 2016. For EURAUD main driver would be ECB on Thursday. We expect ECB to be very dovish and any less in sentiment will look to exit this trade.